United States mining and industrial production and retail sales; economic growth is solid at the bottom
Real retail sales remain sluggish (consumption expenditure is rising, but due to higher prices, consumption volume is not growing), while industrial production (real) continues to expand.
July U.S. retail sales were flat month-over-month. Rather than intentional restraint on consumption, it likely reflects reduced spending on gasoline due to lower gas prices.
From industrial production (data released are real) and (real) retail sales, a real GDP growth rate on a quarterly basis is estimated to be just under 2 percent. Economic growth remains solid. The Fed is not in a state where it will ease the pace of rate hikes.
I believe the economy will deteriorate rapidly from the October-December period (perhaps into December).
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