Contrarian or trend following?

One of the questions I’m really often asked when I’m in the salon is

“Is it contrarian or trend-following?”

It’s really a common dilemma, isn’t it?

I myself have tried all sorts of things too, you know?

To this question as well“It absolutely has to be this way!”there isn’t a single answer?

So what I’m about to write here is my opinion, and you may disagree?

If you currently haven’t found a clear answer yet, or you’re still unsure, this might be helpful, so please read on?

※As usual, I may use Elliott Wave terminology in explanations.

If you’re not well-versed in Elliott Waves, don’t worry—this is written so you can skip over those parts, so please read comfortably m(_ _)”m)

For me, the answer is…

‘Absolutely contrarian!!!’

that is the answer.

“It’s rising, so it will rise further,it must be trend-following!”

I certainly see opinions like that frequently.

And I have tried it in practice as well.

For example, in a breakout of a high

If you enter on a high breakout that surpasses the endpoint of this impulsive wave 1 or zigzag wave A, you can ride the trend and make a profit.

（※Wave 3 and Wave C are both advancing waves. In other words, the trend.)

But what actually happens, right?

Sometimes you Entry thinking it’s a breakout and you get caught at the high!

That happens quite often.

To return to the previous example…

Assume (1) is counted as an impulsive wave and you enter thinking it’s a Wave 3 on a high breakout.

But in fact the sub-waves of (1) are zigzags, not impulsive?

So is it a diagonal?

Or maybe the preceding corrective wave hadn’t finished yet?

There are many cases like this and you could end up with a floating loss.

（?Left diagram: if it’s a diagonal, the waveform is like this）

Also, on the right diagram, there can be zigzags where the C wave is small, too.

（※For those who don’t understand Elliott Waves, simply read it as a waveform like the diagram that can lead to a high-entry loss, please read as such m(_ _"m)）

The truth is that breakout entries have surprisingly low win rates?

Especially for people who have only a few years of market experience‘Buying high and selling low’is something everyone often experiences, doesn’t it?

“When I enter, it immediately goes against me??”

“Isn’t someone watching my entry?”

“The reverse-god?”

These kinds of things are often seen on Twitter, right? lol

Even those who do live streams often talk about only losses, right? lol

In the salon as well

“If I enter, why does it become ‘buying high and selling low’?””

We’ve received many questions like this from people.

There are so many who experience that the rate goes in the opposite direction after-entry, you know?

Next, you might have heard this:

“For higher timeframes it’s trend-following, for lower timeframes it’s contrarian!”

This can be profitable in the cases of buying the dips or selling on pullbacks.

Whether you use moving averages (MA) or oscillators, the essence is the same, so try applying it to what you use.

For example

・Daily chart (D1) MA is rising (yellow).

・4-hour chart (H4) MA is turning up after a decline (pink).

If you can enter in such a situation as shown above, you’ll likely profit.

Now let’s look at the fail patterns as well.

Charts always reverse from the lower timeframe.

Therefore even if the higher timeframe is rising and you enter to ride it…

the reversal on the higher timeframe indicators is quite delayed.

（As I’ve said many times,indicators are lagging indicators）

so, as shown in diagram ?, the price can also turn downwards?

I myself used to think“For higher timeframes it’s trend-following, for lower timeframes it’s contrarian!”when I traded relying on indicators before studying Elliott Waves.

Even so, it’s still a contrarian approach in a way, so with proper stop-loss you can still profit overall despite losses like those above.

If you enter earlier, you can accumulate profits to some extent.

In practice,“So which pattern is it really?”

you might wonder, but no matter what analysis you use, conflicting scenarios exist.

That means… you have to adapt with Entry methods and Exit methods.

Next’(after seeing some reversals)Contrarian entry

Above

“For higher timeframes it’s trend-following, for lower timeframes it’s contrarian!”

In Elliott Wave, there is an entry method that enter after breaking the 4th wave endpoint!

That method exists, right?

If anyone in the salon remembers that I“placed a stop-entry order”used that, it was because I“set a stop entry at the 4th wave endpoint”back then.

This Entry can be applied to a higher timeframe or even just the execution timeframe, but it’s a method of entering after a reversal is observed.

First, isn’t it safer to“wait for a bit after the reversal”?

Finally… next comes‘completelycontrarian’

This is what I’m currently trading in

‘Sell when it goes up, buy when it goes down’

That is, selling during an upmove and buying on a down move.

before a reversalyou’ll sell into strength, etc.

Sometimes it’s like a pullback entry, and sometimes it’s a complete contrarian against the higher timeframe (diagram?) as well.

Please look at the history of investing.

Even the famous Sankoho Honma Benkatsu method is entirely contrarian.

Hiraki Akiro, famous for “ugokuritori” (swing trading) is completely contrarian as well.

History tells the story.

This area could become very long to write about, so I plan to publish more details when I reveal my methods, so please look forward if you’re interested?

That said, I’m not doing anything particularly special—just studying market history and applying it.

If you want to know sooner, study the history?

Those who use indicators rely on values calculated from past price data.

Did you study the ideas of past masters to understand the market itself?

There are words left by smarter people than you, so study history…??

If you do, you’ll naturally start earning money.

So, how was it?

It was simple, but I’ve written about trend-following and contrarian approaches.

This is only my opinion, so there may be objections.

However, if there are people struggling with trend-following or contrarian approaches,

‘Absolutely contrarian!!!’

（Including contrarian on the lower timeframe with higher timeframe trend）

I say this loudly.

“‘Jumping on board’ Can you win? – Bayes' Theorem –” I have hypothesized and calculated the win rate for jumping on board.

It wasn’t a particularly high win rate, was it? lol

（If you haven’t read it, please do?）

First, why not try the entry of a) a higher timeframe’s trend-following and b) a lower timeframe’s contrarian, as an initial approach?

Since most people use indicators, wouldn’t this be easier to get started?

I’m repeating myself, but this is just my personal opinion?

Some people earn by breakout strategies.

There are those who cannot sell when it’s rising.

➥ Can you have sold in the current dollar-yen rise?

➥ Could you have bought during the recent Corona shock?

Trading is influenced by personality.

I’m naturally someone who doesn’t like doing the same as others, so I can sell when it’s rising. But I can’t buy when it’s rising?

Finding a method that suits you is also part of trading.

Please keep trying to discover the best method for you!

That’s all for now.
Thank you for reading until the end. m(_ _"m)

※I’m always grateful for your kind words, which makes me very happy.
Thank you very much indeed.
The following is the paid portion, but there is no article there, so please note?
A few people have asked to show their appreciation, so I’ve created this.
To those who purchased, thank you very much indeed?