2018.2.21 FX-ON投稿時刻 06:45 Dollar/Yen price movement forecast and scenario - I have written an article detailing movements and scenarios of USD/JPY more precisely and comprehensively than any other blog or site. - Navi+ - GogoJungle | Auto Trading - Market Analysis

2018.2.21 FX-ON投稿時刻 06:45 Dollar/Yen price movement forecast and scenario

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Study of FX: Reviewing the previous USD/JPY movement forecast

A premise for studying FX is that "there is no absolute correct answer in trading." It is necessary to find an edge in uncertainty and to trade based on that edge. For example, suppose a certain chart pattern suggests moving 11 times. However, it is not guaranteed to move 11 times; it could be 10, or 12. It could end around 3, or extend beyond 15. Traders need to look at the chart pattern and set a "rule" for where to enter and where to exit. Isn’t that what it means to study FX effectively and efficiently? If you enter when it moves 10, it is quite likely to move up to 11. However, if you enter after only moving 1, you cannot be sure it will really move to 11. If the stop-loss line is set to move 8 against you, then for each entry, you need a win rate higher than 9 wins and 1 loss out of 10 moves, or higher than 4 wins and 5 losses out of 1 move, ignoring fees, in order to profit. Trading win rate decreases when you tighten the stop-loss and increases when you widen it. Likewise, the larger the target profit, the lower the win rate; the smaller the target, the higher the win rate. There is no doubt about this. The key is to balance win rate and profit. To do that, you need accurate price movement forecasts. We hope the scenarios on this site can assist you in FX study and discretionary trading. So, back to the main topic, we will review the previous scenario as usual with the same level of accuracy.

Last USD/JPY Forecast (Click the image to go to the article.)

Last USD/JPY forecast USD/JPY 15-minute chart

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Today’s USD/JPY Forecast: Building a scenario for USD/JPY movement

＜Posted on 2018.2.21 06:30＞
It looks like it will be range-bound. The estimated range is 107.100–300. I imagine it will oscillate within this range and then break out.

● Scenario 1
If it breaks above the 107.100–300 range to around 107.400–500, it will consolidate or adjust, then break above the range to around 107.650–750. If it breaks below or with a pullback, it could fall to around 107.050–100. After rising to around 107.650–750 again, it may consolidate or adjust around that level. A breakout above the consolidation could push to around 107.850–950. If it breaks below, it could drop to around 106.250–300. If it rises to around 107.850–950, further upside could push toward around 108.200–400.
● Scenario 2
If it breaks below the 107.100–300 range to around 107.050–106.950, it will consolidate or adjust. If it breaks below the consolidation, it could fall to around 106.850–750. If it breaks above the consolidation or with a pullback, it could rise to around 107.200–100. After dropping to around 106.850–750 again, it may consolidate or adjust around that area. If it breaks below the consolidation, it could fall to around 106.600–500. If it breaks above or with a pullback, it could rise to around 107.100–000. If it falls to around 106.600–500, and downward momentum strengthens, it could drop to around 106.250–100.

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