Employment Statistics July 22; A bit odd, but wages growth remains steady (2)

The U.S. employment statistics include the establishment survey and the household survey.

In the data released this time, the month-on-month change in nonfarm payrolls was an increase of 528,000 in the establishment survey, but a decrease of 112,000 in the household survey.
The household survey is highly volatile, and generally the establishment survey is considered more reliable, but this time there are noticeable differences even in the trend. It may be revised going forward, but for now this is a warning. In this case, it is highly likely that the nonfarm payrolls from the establishment survey will be revised downward.

That would be a sign of an economic slowdown, but the Fed will place greater emphasis on wage growth.

Nonfarm payrolls, month-on-month

Nonfarm payrolls, three months trailing

Nonfarm payrolls

By the way, regarding the ADP employment report,

ADP employs data from Automatic Data Processing, Inc., a U.S. payroll processing company, to estimate the U.S. Department of Labor's employment statistics (private employment) and publishes them.
However, ADP (ADP Research Institute) has halted its estimates for July. The method of estimation up to now likely does not work. “We are working on a monthly statistical method for private-sector employment in the U.S., and will temporarily suspend the July publication. We aim to resume in August under a new method,” it announced by email.

I think the issue is not ADP’s estimates but the U.S. Labor Department’s employment statistics. I think so, but the market moves on that data, so there is little you can do to say the data are wrong.

I thought that the month-on-month increase in nonfarm payrolls this time might be below 300,000 or even below 200,000, given the rise in initial unemployment claims.