Kayaki Takaki 「Weekly Gold Market Outlook」 August 1, 2022 issue

Takao Kaburagi, president and representative director of Investment Daily Co., Ltd., a renowned cycle analysis expert, writes a weekly report on gold price outlook.

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Last week's New York gold price closed at $1,762.90, up $35.50 from the previous week. The key event last week was the FOMC, and as the market expected, there was a sharp rate hike of 0.75% for the second consecutive time.

As for gold, the price had already priced in a break below $1,700 from the previous week, and after the FOMC there was no 1% rate hike, which was interpreted as a positive factor and led to a rebound.

Furthermore, with real GDP for Q2 and Q3 deteriorating for two consecutive quarters and recession concerns intensifying, according to CME FedWatch, the prevailing view is that the September FOMC will cap the rate hike at 0.5%, a factor that supported the rise in gold.

However, this sentiment is temporary, and any economic indicators to be released going forward can overturn it at any time; if strong indicators appear, inflation is not yet contained, and a similar rate hike as this time could be anticipated. In U.S. economic indicators next week, in addition to employment statistics, the July ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released on the 1st.

Please refer to the PDF file for more details.

【Takao Kaburagi — Profile】

Graduated from Kwansei Gakuin University, Faculty of Economics. In 1995, partnered with world-renowned U.S. market analyst Raymond A. Meriwether (Note: likely a transliteration of Raymond Merriman) to publish the domestic first market cycle and astrology reports. Renowned for cycle and astrology-based market analysis. Representative Director of Investment Daily Co., Ltd.; Representative Director of Investment Daily Publishing Co., Ltd.; Director of Wakabayashi FX Associates; Member of the Japanese Technical Analysts Association; Editor-in-chief of Investment Daily Alpha.

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