Central Plains Shun Report (DJIA Average / Nikkei Average) No.163 August 1, 2022
・Point
Medium- to long-term outlook (if using the second-phase pattern from March 2020, a sharp rise is required) No change
The first 4-year cycle has been viewed as a combination of two 24-month cycles and three 15.5-month cycles, but it may not adopt the second-phase pattern. If it is a 24-month cycle, a sharp rise should continue. On the other hand, with only the third-phase pattern, toward the bottom of the second 15.5-month cycle in November, there may be no noticeable rebound, and the downtrend would resume.
・Point
Medium- to long-term outlook (the up phase of the second 24-month cycle. Ideally by year-end, or at least until around September) No change
The 24-month cycle bottomed on March 9. Time and price targets have been met (time within March ±3 months, price below 25,280). The first PC of the second 24-month cycle is bullish. With Japanese stocks not making new lows and U.S. stocks making new lows and turning, a bullish divergence is forming. In particular, Nasdaq starting to rise clearly is encouraging.
Please see the PDF file for the continuation.
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