The outlook is bright with the revival of 1,000,000 yen
Due to unauthorized access, the large exchange Coincheck, which suffered customer asset leakage, has improved market conditions again with the prospect of business continuation, and surpassed 10,000,000 yen. From here, the aim is to reach the upper boundary of the gradual downtrend channel that has continued since last year.100ten thousand yen exceeded. From here, the goal is to reach the upper bound of the gradual downtrend channel that has continued since last year.
■From bottoming to uptrend
As noted previously, when rumors such as the Tether controversy cause the market to fall in a way that the participants who are buying now cannot rationally justify, it is the final squeeze stage to shake off the buyers. As a result of such an inexplicable decline clearing out buying positions,65ten thousand yen formed a long upper shadow and then rebounded sharply. This became a bottoming signal, and afterward the daily MACD crossed. The upside remained heavy for a whileMACDcrossed. It stagnated near 100,000 yen, but as the weekly candle improved, buying momentum gradually increased, and finally100ten thousand yen again.
This week, although there were no clear catalysts, market psychology changes and technicals have revived momentum in the market.
■Aftershocks of the unauthorized access incident
During the fall, discussions swirled about whether cryptocurrencies with remaining security vulnerabilities can ever evolve into a substitute for fiat currencies. However, a calm assessment is that the damage exposed the need for security measures by exchanges, not a fundamental danger of blockchain itself.
Additionally, the incident is likely to strengthen public regulation and self-regulation aimed at investor protection, which could gradually restore trust in cryptocurrencies. If the regulatory authorities actively move toward practical use of cryptocurrencies, that would be positive for the market.
■2Month Outlook
100ten thousand yen again breaches, and1 month marks a daily Bollinger Band center line breakout, suggesting the uptrend may consolidate (as in the upper chart). However, even if the psychological milestone is breached, many players will hold out without taking profits for a while, so a substantial rise may be delayed, potentially after surpassing10,000 dollars.
Also,4hour timeframe shows that100ten thousand yen breakout coincides with expansion of the previously flat Bollinger Bands. This squeeze-to-expansion technical pattern is a high-probability signal that the trend will continue. When Bollinger Bands are parallel, buying and selling are evenly balanced and positions accumulate; once one side breaks, losses occur, triggering further losses and a domino-like trend. Trends end when there is a clear catalyst or when the losses settle, but in the BTC market, lacking fundamental material, this trend is expected to continue for a while.
The target is the upper boundary of the downtrend channel that has persisted since the end of last year.
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【Author】
Kawata Seio(Kawada Saiō)
Trading Securities Market Department, Dealing Section
Born in Geneva, Switzerland. Graduated from Keio University.
From experiences traveling to many countries, Fanmentals analysis rooted in real experience is persuasive.
Utilizing behavioral economics learned in school, analyzes market participants' psychological biases theoretically and applies to trading.
Hobby is shogi; amateur high-dan player. The mid-game maneuvers also help in reading the next move in the market.
My motto: "The masses are always wrong."
【Disclaimer】
The Bitcoin market information and other content provided on this site reflect the author's personal views and do not guarantee the accuracy or safety of the content by the author, Traders Securities Co., Ltd., or our company. Also, such information is provided for reference purposes only and does not advocate any specific investment action or management method regarding virtual currencies. Please make investment decisions on your own judgment. Any gains or losses from investments belong entirely to investors. The author, Traders Securities Co., Ltd., and our company shall not be responsible for any damages incurred based on this information.
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