Central Plains Elite Report (Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nikkei Average) No.161 July 19, 2022

・Point

Medium to long-term outlook (the second-phase pattern starting from March 2020 disappears, possibly the third-phase pattern of the 15.5-month cycle) No change

The first four-year cycle has been viewed as a combination pattern of two 24-month cycles and three 15.5-month cycles, but there is a high possibility of not taking the second-phase pattern. If it is a 24-month cycle, it must start a sharp rise within this month. On the other hand, if it is only the third-phase pattern, there may be no obvious rebound toward the second 15.5-month cycle bottom in November, and the downtrend will continue.

・Point

Medium to long-term outlook (if the 24-month cycle tops out, there is a possibility of decline toward 2024) No change

The 24-month cycle bottomed on March 9. Both time and price targets have been reached (time within ±3 months of March, price below 25,280). The first primary cycle of the second 24-month cycle is bullish, but may have already topped out. If Japanese stocks do not reach new lows and U.S. stocks make new lows and then rebound, a bullish divergence would be formed; if new lows are reached later, it would be a bearish convergence and could lead to a substantial decline.

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