【Taro's Discretionary Trade Struggle Chronicle ~ USD/JPY Edition ~ 22/7/18 Week Forecast】
Latest USD/JPY Forecast
Hello~♪ Good evening everyone~☆
How are you spending the three-day holiday? ^^
I’m Tarou, spending the long weekend mostly drinking alcohol♪
Since it’s a three-day weekend, I’m writing little by little to avoid not posting until Monday, but I think when I upload, there will be only one day left of the break. Haha
Right away, let’s start this week’s'22/7/18 Week Forecastfirst☆
First, as usual, let’s review last week’s movements.
7/13 (Wed) 21:30 June CPI (YoY)
→ Forecast: 1.1% Result:→ Forecast: 0.9% Result:1.0%1.3%
7/15 (Fri) 21:30 June Retail Sales (MoM)
1.0%
7/15 (Fri) 22:15 June Industrial Production (MoM)
→ Forecast: 0.1% Result:-0.2%
～A few comments on indicator results～
This week, above all, theJune CPIresult surpassed expectations as the main story.
MoM 1.3%、YoY 9.1%—even with rate hikes, inflation keeps rising.
In response, fears of furtherrate hikes intensified, leading to more yen selling and dollar buying
Last week’s forecast mentioned 137/USD, but not only reached 137,138 was crossed in an instant,yen weakened to 139during the week…
Over the weekend,June Retail Salescame in as expected,Industrial Productionwas worse than expected, so concerns about rate hikes eased a bit and it retraced to around 138.5 yen.
This week’s notable indicators are“Existing Home Sales”, “Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index”, “Manufacturing PMI”—the results will be interesting to see how they influence the market’s rate-hike concerns.
～Comments on last week’s Tarou entry～
Last week was
【The bias favors longs!? Capture buy-entry signals firmly and enter!!】
☆
The point that long entries were favored is correct, but I didn’t expect to reach 139 yen! Haha
Surely the market CPI result was beyond expectations.
The following item ① is expected to behit☆
①If the 4-hour high from last week is surpassed or last week’s low is broken upbuy-entry！
Take-profit pointis the Fibonacci 38.2% line at137.1 yen☆
Since it reached it at the start of the week, thereafter I mainly watched the chart, but I think you could have captured about 60 pips, right? ^^♪
I’d like to analyze the chart more thoroughly to be able to predict entry points more often☆
Now, while looking at the chart, let’s go onto this week’s forecast♪
First, the daily chart☆
【Daily】
This week again, we redraw the Fibonacci levels reliably.
How many times do we need to redraw Fibonacci lines? Haha
From charts, clearly theuptrend continues！
Pullback buying pointswill be the key this week☆
Inside the chart I drewa purple dotted line linking prior low points. (There is some width, so I drew two lines)
When the price is supported at this line, I’d look to enter long as a pullback buy.
Over the next 2-3 days,a move back to around where this line overlaps with the 138 yen linewould be ideal for abuy-entrypoint☆
I’d like to go for aggressive buy entriesas possible
As for sell entries, given the current flow, I think we should wait until we clearly break below the 136.38 yen level of the Fibonacci 23.6% line
Now, let’s take a closer look on the 4-hour chart☝
【4-hour】
On the 4-hour chart I’ve also drawn the Fibonacci lines and a line connecting the price lows
For more detail, on the 4-hour chart I’ve drawn two lines:Long-term low points line (purple dotted) andRecent low points line (yellow dotted).
Line connecting long-term low pointssuggests that, as on the daily chart, the buy-entry point would be around the intersection with the 138 yen line☆
The previous high is also a good line to watch for pullback buying, I think!This is likely the main movement☆
On the other hand,line connecting recent lowsshows thatthere is a possibility of a slightly earlier reversalgiven the current upward momentum; this is quite possible.
Tomorrow the Japanese market is closed, so movements may be uncertain, and you might find yourself wandering around the yellow ellipse point…and Tuesday could quickly turn upward againand Tuesday could quickly turn upward again—this scenario is quite plausible☆
And the big question is how high it will go, butfirst we would see a 139 yen challenge.
If it starts rising, I think it will hold up to 139 yen, but whether it will exceed the high is a matter of take-profit, and maybe going no-entry to observe is fine.
し140円チャレンジに挑むという形でも十分なのではないかと思います☆
So,This Week’s Tarou Entryis~☆
～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～
This Week’sKey Pointsare
Buy-entry favored! Find pullback points and enter buys!!
would be!
①If Monday wanders along the current line all day, then on Tuesday morningbuy-entry！
Take-profit pointis first139.0 yen☆
Stop-loss point will be Fibonacci 23.6% line at136.35 yen.
②If it’s supported at 138 yenbuy-entry!
Take-profit pointhere is also temporarily139.0 yen☆
Stop-loss point also136.35 yen.
③If the high price (139.4 yen) is updated,buy-entry!
Take-profit pointhere is temporarily140.1 yen☆
※If 140 yen is broken through, there might be a slight overshoot due to stop-loss for sell entries, so 140.1 yen is the forecast.
Stop-loss point is tricky, but136.35 yen.
③If the Fibonacci 23.6% line falls belowsell-entry!
Take-profit pointis Fibonacci 38.2% line at134.53 yen☆
Stop-loss point is the high before last,137.8 yen.
This week I’ll focus on thesefour forecaststo enter withenjoymentand properly take profits^^♪
Since the market is volatile, I’ll post additional forecasts on Twitter, etc., as well~☆
～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～
Well then, as usual, I’ll check this week’s notable indicators and conclude☆
7/20 (Wed) 23:00 June Existing Home Sales
7/21 (Thu) 21:30July Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
7/22 (Fri) 22:45 Manufacturing PMI
As noted at the start, this week’s market move will depend on how rate-hike concerns fluctuate!
Even with indicators, let’s predict both results and chart reactions and enjoy entering this week as well♪
Thank you for reading to the end today☆
Everyone, have a fantastic posi-posit life this week as well♪
LINE comments are also welcome^^♪
Last Week’s USD/JPY Forecast
If you want to read Tarou’s discretionary trading struggle from last week too,
please do check it out♪ Here it is^^↓↓↓
Past USD/JPY Forecasts
If you want to see even more past entries, please go here^^♪↓↓↓
How to Think About Entry, Take-Profit, and Stop-Loss Points
Below link summarizes Tarou’s basic approach to chart analysis☆
Since Tarou is a beginner, his approach and experience evolve over time
(growing, I’m sure W)
I will update and revise occasionally^^♪
“What’s this about? What’s the thinking?”
and
“Let me check the growth and learn more!”
Please feel free to come see often with that mindset^^♪
How to Choose FX Accounts and Recommended FX Accounts
Now that you’ve read up to here, many of you might want to start actual trading, right?^^
If so, you’re probably thinking about which FX broker to start with☆
In that case, Tarou has summarized
”【Recommended FX Accounts】If You’re Starting FX♪”
Would you like to read it^^b
It summarizes six points for choosing a broker☆
Please give it a read as well m–m
By the way, Tarou uses FXTF♪
If you’re unsure which broker to use for FX, or
you want something easy,
you can register easily from the link below, so give it a try^^♪
It’ll be the same FXTF as Tarou
If you use the same FXTF as Tarou, he can teach you a lot,
so feel free to ask via the LINE above♪↓↓↓↓
