Central Plain Runner Report (DJIA Average / Nikkei Average) No.160 July 11, 2022

・Points

Medium-to-long-term outlook (the second-phase pattern starting from March 2020 disappears and may become the third-phase pattern of the 15.5-month cycle) No change

The first 4-year cycle has been viewed as a combination of two 24-month cycles and three 15.5-month cycles, but there is also a possibility of not taking the second-phase pattern. If it is a 24-month cycle, a sharp rise could begin by July at the latest. On the other hand, if only the third-phase pattern remains, there may be no meaningful rebound toward the November bottom of the second 15.5-month cycle, and the downtrend could continue.

・Points

． Medium-to-long-term outlook (if the 24-month cycle tops out, there is a possibility of decline toward 2024) No change

The 24-month cycle bottomed on March 9. Both time and price targets are reached (time within ±3 months of March, price below 25,280). The first PC of the second 24-month cycle is bullish, but may already be top-out. If Japanese stocks do not hit new lows and U.S. stocks hit new lows and rebound, a bullish divergence would be completed; if new lows are reached later, a bearish divergence would occur, potentially leading to a large drop.

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