[Tarou's Discretionary Trading Struggles ~ USD/JPY Edition ~ Week of 22/7/11 Forecast]

Latest USD/JPY Forecast

If you’re going to work on Sunday, you can just update the blog on Saturday ☆

Hello everyone~♪ Good evening～☆ That’s Taro, who can’t even manage something this simple though～

On the way home I got caught in a sudden guerrilla downpour, my motivation is utterly at the bottom, but to enjoy this week I’ll still diligently go through this week’s USD/JPY forecast today as well!

If I keep rambling today I feel it won’t end, so

Let’s start this week’s forecast now’22/7/11 Week ForecastLet’s begin ☆

First, as always, review last week’s movements.

7/6 (Wed) 23:00 June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

→ Forecast: 54.1 Result:55.3

7/7 (Thu) 21:30 May Trade Balance

→ Forecast: -84.88 billion USD Result:-85.50 billion USD

7/8 (Fri) 21:30 June Employment Situation
　Nonfarm Payrolls【MoM】
　→ Forecast: 264k Result:372k

Unemployment Rate
　→ Forecast: 3.6% Result:3.6%

～Comments on Indicator Results～

This week was a week that reacted to the indicator results, I think.
First, at 23:00 on 7/6 (Wed)The strong June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI resultcaused a quick reversal to a weaker yen. There was a temporary pullback, but from this result the battle around 135 became a battle around 136.May Trade Balancewas worse than expected, causing a momentary move toward yen strength, but that was temporary; the strength of the dollar ahead of the employment data likely played a big role. And as expectedJune Employment Situationcame out better than expected, pushing strongly toward a weaker yen and stronger dollar!
The week’s end also closed near 136 due to adjustments, but I think the trend this week will be toward yen weakness and dollar strength.

This week's June CPIis drawing a lot of attentionas to whether it will be notable!I think so!

～Comments on last week's Taro entry～

Last week
【Enter after you can clearly see the direction!!】
That was☆

Yep! Totally off the mark! LOL

I expected more movement, but compared with the week before last, it was a fairly range-bound week.
Still, for USD/JPY it moved quite a bit, so maybe my perception was dulled…
Reflection time!

This week is a revenge time!!

Now, looking at the chartsThis week’s forecastLet's go♪

First, the daily chart☆

【Daily】

135 yen vicinity is a fairly strong support lineas you can see.

This week is very straightforwardFocus on new highs or a break below 135when entering!

One cue for long entries would be the purple dotted line on the chart..

If the week starts with a breakout above, the flow should be fully towardnew highs and a 137 yen challenge!

We’d like to place a strong long entry☆

For short entries, if the thick 135 yen line breaks below, I think we’ll target the Fibonacci 23.6% line for entry, so I want to enter firmly at that timing!

So, as usual, let’s also look at the 4-hour chart ☝

【4-hour Chart】

Last week’s endemployment data came out better than expected, so on the 4-hour chart we see a higher high and higher low formation.

Will the pattern of higher highs and higher lows continue at the start of the week? That’s where entries seem likely ☆

If last week’s high is broken (up beyond the daily purple dotted line) or if it dips slightly and then rises again above last week’s high, then is on, so I’d like to go long☆

Of course, if on the 4-hour chart the thick area around 135 yen breaks downward, then it’s a short entry ☆

In this way the forecast is a bit plain, but this week’s entries look fairly clear☆

So～Taro’s Entry for This Week☆

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Key Points
This week, is the upward bias stronger!? Capture the long-entry signals clearly and enter!!



to keep in mind as you enter!

①If the 4-hour chart breaks above last week’s high or raises last week’s lowLong Entry!

Take profitat Fibonacci 38.2% line137.1 yen☆

Stop loss at Fibonacci 23.6% line134.3 yen.

②If it falls below 135 yenSell entry!

Take profitat Fibonacci 23.6% line for now134.3 yen☆.


Stop loss is at the high two candles back on the 4-hour chart136.2 yen.

This week’s forecast is a bit simple, but with these two scenarios you can enjoy entering and aim to solidly take profits^^♪
If there are additional forecasts, I’ll post them on Twitter and elsewhere ☆

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Now, as always, let’s check this week’s notable indicators and wrap up☆

7/13 (Wed) 21:30 June CPI (MoM)

7/15 (Fri) 21:30 June  Retail Sales (MoM)

7/15 (Fri) 22:15 Industrial Production (MoM)

This week, following last week’s favorable statistical results, CPI attention is expected to rise further!

If the US economy remains strong, dollar appreciation (strong dollar) will likely continue!

Let’s anticipate both the results and chart reactions to the indicators and enjoy trading this week as well♪

Thank you again for reading to the end today☆

Everyone, have another amazing posi-life this week too♪

Comments via LINE are also welcome^^♪

Last Week’s USD/JPY Forecast

If you’re curious to read Taro’s discretionary trading struggle from last week as well!

Please do check it out♪ It’s right here^^↓↓↓

【Taro’s Discretionary Trading Struggle – USD/JPY Edition – 22/7/4 Week Forecast】

’22/7/4 Week USD/JPY Forecast Good evening!! July has arrived in a flash! The second half of this year has begun!! But… every day is hot and I’m already getting summer fatigue… Will I have the stamina until the summer break… (lol) Yen depreciation, this climate, what on earth is Japan...

Past USD/JPY Forecasts

If you want to see even older entries, please click here ^^♪↓↓↓

Taro’s Discretionary Trading Struggle – USD/JPY Edition

List of articles on USD/JPY.

How to think about Entry, Take Profit, and Stop Loss Points

On the link below, I’ve summarized Taro’s basic approach to chart analysis ☆

This is beginner Taro’s trading struggle, so Taro’s thinking evolves with experience
(it’s growing! probably lol)

I’ll update and revise occasionally^^♪

“What’s this? What’s the way of thinking?”
and
“Let me check Taro’s growth!”

Please keep visiting with that in mind^^♪

FX Entry, Take Profit, Stop Loss: How to Decide

☆A must-read for beginners☆ I’ll introduce Taro’s basic entry points, take-profit points, and stop-loss points☆ Have you ever moved strongly in the opposite direction immediately after entering or extended after taking profit? I hope this can help even a little for you♪

How to Choose an FX Broker and Recommended FX Brokers

Now that you’ve read this far, many of you probably want to start actual trading, right?^^

In that case, you’re likely wondering which FX broker to start with ☆

In such a case, Taro has compiled

”【Recommended FX Accounts】If you’re starting FX♪”

Why not read this^^b

I’ve summarized six criteria for choosing a broker☆

Please also read this m–m

【Recommended FX Accounts】If you’re starting FX♪

If you want to start FX but ask “Where should I open an account?” “What points should I compare to choose?”, you there! I was in the same state when starting too! If you’d like, use my experience as a reference and choose an FX broker that suits you☆

By the way, the FX broker I use is FXTF♪

If you still don’t know which broker is best for FX, or

it’s a hassle to choose—tell me something easy to start with

You can register easily from the link below, so please try it^^♪

Same as Taro, it will be FXTF for you too!

If you’re with the same FXTF as Taro, I can teach you a lot,

so feel free to ask via the LINE above^^↓↓↓↓