Central Plains Shun Report (Dow Jones Industrial Average/Nikkei Average) No.159 July 4, 2022

・Point

Medium-to-long term outlook (the second-phase pattern starting from March 2020 disappears and may become the third-phase pattern of the 15.5-month cycle) No change

The first 4-year cycle has been viewed as a combination of two 24-month cycles and three 15.5-month cycles, but there is also a possibility of not taking the second-phase pattern. If it is a 24-month cycle, a sharp rise could begin by July at the latest. On the other hand, if it is only the third-phase pattern, there would be no apparent rebound toward November, the bottom of the second 15.5-month cycle, and the downtrend could continue.

・Point

Medium-to-long term outlook (if the 24-month cycle tops out, there is a possibility of decline toward 2024) No change

The 24-month cycle bottomed on March 9. Both time and price targets are achieved (time within March ±3 months, price below 25,280). The first PC of the second 24-month cycle is bullish, but may already have topped out. If Japanese stocks do not make new lows and U.S. stocks make new lows and rebound, a bullish divergence would be completed, but if new lows are delayed, a bearish convergence could lead to a large decline.

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