Central Plains Shun Report (Dow Jones Industrial Average / Nikkei Average) No.158 June 27, 2022

・Point

Medium- to long-term outlook (the second-phase pattern starting from March 2020 disappears and may become the third-phase pattern of the 15.5-month cycle) Change

The first four-year cycle has been viewed as a combination of two 24-month cycles and three 15.5-month cycles, but there is also a possibility that it may not take the second-phase pattern. If it is a 24-month cycle, a sharp rise could begin by July at the latest. On the other hand, if it is only the third-phase pattern, there may be no meaningful rebound toward November, which is the bottom of the second 15.5-month cycle, and the downtrend could continue—this is something to watch carefully.

・Point

Medium- to long-term outlook (if the 24-month cycle tops out, there is a possibility of decline toward 2024) Change

The 24-month cycle bottomed on March 9. Both time and price targets have been reached (time within ±3 months of March, price at or below 25,280). The first PC of the second 24-month cycle is optimistic, but a top-out may already be possible. If Japanese stocks do not hit new lows and U.S. stocks do hit new lows and reverse, the bullish divergence would be completed; if new lows are reached later, a bearish convergence could lead to a substantial decline.

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