Central Plains Jumpei Report (Dow Jones Average / Nikkei Average) No.156 June 13, 2022

・Point <ＮＹ Dow

Medium- to long-term outlook (downward toward the 24-month cycle bottom starting from March 2020) No change

4-year cycle and 12-year cycle started in March 2020. The first 4-year cycle is a combination pattern of two 24-month cycles and three 15.5-month cycles. Since the February 24 low was breached, the 24-month cycle has not yet bottomed. However, this cycle can bottom by March 2022 ± 4 months, i.e., up to July at the latest, so a bottom-out is possible at any time.

・Point

Medium- to long-term outlook (24-month cycle bottoms out. Expected to start rising toward the 6–10 month period at the latest) No change

The 24-month cycle bottomed out on March 9. Both time and price targets have been achieved (time: March ± 3 months; price: 25,280 or below). The first PC of the second 24-month cycle is bullish. Ideally, if Japanese stocks do not make new lows and US stocks do make new lows and reverse, bullish divergence would be completed. Conversely, if new lows come later, it would be a bearish divergence and a dangerous situation.

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