MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Jun.13 2022

1. Review

The Nikkei Stock Average closed last week at 27,824, up 62 points from the previous week. The week's low was 27,523 on Monday the 6th. The week's high was 28,389 on Thursday the 9th. Although the week's high exceeded the weekly upside resistance line, it retreated. Since the closing price on the 10th fell below that level, it triggered a bearish signal. However, because this week's closing price still surpassed the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for four consecutive weeks, the underlying trend remains in an “uptrend” state.

2. Cycles

As explained in the end-of-2021 release of “Forecast 2022,” the Nikkei Stock Average has a long-term cycle of 17 years. Its anchor is 6,994 on October 28, 2008, making 2022 the 14th year from the anchor.

This cycle is divided into 8.33-year subcycles, with the first half ending at the “double bottom” of 14,864 on June 24, 2016 and 14,865 on February 12 of the same year. The second half (the second 8.33-year cycle) has begun.

Moreover, this 8.33-year cycle consists of two four-year cycles, with the first bottom at 16,358 on March 19, 2020. The current (second) four-year cycle, anchored by this low, enters its 27th month in June. If this cycle is composed of three 16-month cycles just like the first–four-year cycle, then the first–16-month cycle would have bottomed at 26,954 on August 20 last year (August 20–23 ± 3 business days as a significant change date). In fact, the market then surged sharply, and by September 14 of that year (within the September 15–16 significant change date area ± 3 business days), reached 30,795, a level not seen in 31 years.

Please see the continuation in the PDF.

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