Does the attitude of seeking win rate also work?
The conclusion I presented in the blog on Monday, June 6, is the principle to grasp when you think about the number called "winning rate."
But,“win by increasing the win rate”is also a method.
All you need is “one condition” to be in place.
One example is to always stay ahead of market movements.
If new information comes out, if related stocks react… you anticipate this movement remarkably ahead of time.
However, it requires substantial information gathering ability, strong analytical skills, the ability to instantly judge what chain of events might occur, and a special ability to act faster than other market participants.
It isn’t impossible, but rather than focusing on these almost fantastical success stories, let’s consider “conditions” that anyone can achieve.
In short,“restricting the actions”is the key.
Define a situation that occurs with extremely low frequency but that is “quite likely to win,” and for all other times decide not to touch it at all.
In fact, this posture is, in a sense, a basic of trading. You get wrecked because you too often take action.
For example,
consider a strategy like, “buying in a market crash so severe that the world turns upside down.”
If you move to buy on every small drop, you end up buying during the decline and creating positions that simply go against you. But if you limit it to situations that seem likely to happen only once every five years, you’re more likely to win.
But in reality… you can’t endure it.
You end up finding something to act on before waiting for a crash.
So, let’s consider a setup with somewhat higher feasibility.
‘Define a high-accuracy situation once or twice a year’
This is quite realistic.
This restraint is difficult for human psychology, but to profit, you should practice “this much restraint.” Ideally, it isn’t restraint but making it natural, though….
In fact,the Zhongyuan line position-building methodalso aligns with this way of thinking.
Analyze patterns on a daily chart with a line chart, and detect the start of a trend as the strength/weakness of the Zhongyuan line.
View this as follows.
“Shifts between yin and yang occur repeatedly. But with discretion, act only when several conditions are met.”
This is an application of the Zhongyuan line that requires a solid understanding—an “arrangement.”
It’s a deeper topic, but please keep the mindset of aiming for such an approach.)
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