Central Plains Shun Report (Dow Jones Average / Nikkei Average) No.155 2022 June 6

・Points

Medium- to long-term outlook (downward toward a 24-month cycle bottom from March 2020) No change

4-year cycle and 12-year cycle started in March 2020. The first 4-year cycle is a combination pattern of two 24-month cycles and three 15.5-month cycles. Since the February 24 low has been breached, the 24-month cycle has not yet formed a bottom. However, this cycle can bottom out any time by July at the latest, as it spans until March 2022 ± 4 months.

・Points

Medium- to long-term outlook (the 24-month cycle bottoms out. Expected to start rising at least from June to October) No change

The 24-month cycle bottomed on March 9. Both time and price targets have been met (time: March ± 3 months, price: below 25,280). The first PC of the second 24-month cycle is bullish. Ideally, Japanese stocks would not make new lows while U.S. stocks do, completing a bullish divergence. Conversely, if new lows are delayed, it would become a bearish convergence and a dangerous situation.

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