Will it click firmly or go loosely
What a beginner thinks about is "which stock?". An experienced trader thinks, "where should I deploy?"
In any case, it is only natural to want to hit the forecast precisely.
However, fixating on win rate is dangerous, as it tends to create a contradiction where the potential profit margin is limited.
Therefore, deliberately avoid focusing on a high win rate that satisfies emotion, and allow yourself to enter more loosely.
It's odd to say “loosen up,” but it is important to recognize again the market's basic structure, where no one knows tomorrow's price, and to adopt an attitude of not overreaching.
When going out, instead of aiming to predict "whether it will rain," prepare for rain by having an umbrella ready, and even if it doesn't rain, don't get upset—this kind of “loosening” is a practical, mature response.
By the way, a trading method is built on three elements.
「Forecast」「Position management」「Capital management」
Because you cannot make the forecast's probability 100%, you should consider position management as a set that anticipates both hits and misses.
Also, even if you are 9 wins and 1 loss, you must avoid ruin by considering both efficiency and safety in capital allocation.
The forecast does not have to be correct; it is enough if it serves as a trigger for confident action—that is the practical trader's attitude.
Now, even planes that should fly properly plan for the possibility of a crash, and veteran pilots consider the possibility of a "simple mistake" in operation, so market trend forecasts must be prepared for frequent misses.
Instead of being happy when right and frustrated when wrong, you are required to think about the next move.
Middle Source LineIn that case, using a simple pattern analysis with a price chart of closing prices, you determine months-long rises and falls. This is one of the three elements of the method「Forecast」.
The second element「Position management」is to leave the forward movement (the predicted direction) alone, and to consider counter-movement if it occurs; this is the basic stance of the Middle Source Line.
When you buy and it goes up—no matter how rapid the rise or how wide the price range, as long as the upward trend remains, you should leave it alone and try to let profits run.
However, if a counter-movement (for a long position, a "down" move) shows a certain pattern, you should close the long and execute a reverse sale (short selling). But do it carefully in three steps…
This basic logic is explained in『Chugen-sen Positioning Method: Basics and Applications』which is a book I wrote with confidence, so please take a look.
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