Central Plain Shun Report (Dow Jones Average/Nikkei Average) No.154 May 30, 2022

・Point NY Dow

Mid- to long-term outlook (declining toward the 24-month cycle bottom from March 2020) No change

The 4-year cycle and 12-year cycle started in March 2020. The first 4-year cycle is a combination pattern of two 24-month cycles and three 15.5-month cycles. Since the February 24 low was breached, the 24-month cycle has not yet formed a bottom. However, this cycle spans until March 22 ± 4 months, i.e., up to July at the latest, so a bottom could occur at any time.

・Point

Mid- to long-term outlook (24-month cycle bottoms out. Expected to start rising toward around October–November, at least) No change

The 24-month cycle bottoms out on March 9. Both time and price targets have been reached (time ±3 months around March, price below 25,280). The first PC of the second 24-month cycle is bullish. Ideally, if Japanese equities do not hit new lows and US stocks do, forming a bullish divergence would be completed. Conversely, if new lows appear later, it would become a bearish convergence and a dangerous situation.

Please see the PDF file for the continuation.

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