2018.1.23 FX-ON Submission Time 08:45 Forecast and Scenario for USD/JPY Price Movement
USD/JPY Forecast: Reflecting on the Previous USD/JPY Price Movement Prediction
Today, my wife has been discharged from the hospital, and I need to take our little one to her family's house, so this update is a bit earlier than usual. Since she is discharged at 10:30, we must arrive at the hospital before then. In Kanagawa Prefecture, heavy snowfall has accumulated, so we must drive carefully... The previous forecast correctly predicted the direction of the market stated at the beginning. However, because the consolidation was prolonged, the resistance I thought would function was broken through all at once. There was no drop to 550 from 110.910; instead, it turned around and rose to the point I had forecast with Stock-Measure.
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Previous USD/JPY Forecast (click the image to go to the article)
Previous USD/JPY Forecast USD/JPY 15-minute Chart
Today’s USD/JPY Forecast: Building a Scenario for USD/JPY Price Movement
Looking at the 4-hour chart in a raw view, a symmetrical triangle is forming.
If it breaks downward, it is likely to be stopped at the red support directly below. The range play is more appealing if it breaks upward.
There is a high likelihood of reaching the point shown in the image.
The basic approach is to follow the direction of the breakout, but a downside breakout is somewhat unfavorable in risk-reward terms, while an upside breakout is favorable, so you may want to keep that in mind. If so, you might pass on the downside breakout and follow the upside breakout.<Posted 2018.1.23 08:00>
● Scenario 1
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● Scenario 2
If it breaks below 110.728, it could drop to around 110.650–600, resulting in consolidation or a pullback. If it breaks below the consolidation, it could fall to around 110.550–500. If it breaks above the consolidation, it could rise to around 110.900–850. If it drops back to around 110.550–500 and then consolidates again, a break below this consolidation could bring it down to around 110.400–300. If it breaks above the consolidation or pulls back, it could rise to around 110.850–750. If it drops to around 110.400–300 and the downside momentum strengthens, it may break below 110.000.
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● Scenario 2
If it breaks below 110.728, it could drop to around 110.650–600, resulting in consolidation or a pullback. If it breaks below the consolidation, it could fall to around 110.550–500. If it breaks above the consolidation, it could rise to around 110.900–850. If it drops back to around 110.550–500 and then consolidates again, a break below this consolidation could bring it down to around 110.400–300. If it breaks above the consolidation or pulls back, it could rise to around 110.850–750. If it drops to around 110.400–300 and the downside momentum strengthens, it may break below 110.000.
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