Dollar; Vigilant for early-week confusion

Last week, domestic players entered in earnest and both the Nikkei 225 and USD/JPY rallied.

In European markets, concerns of a rapid euro appreciation arose, causing the euro to stall.

There were moments, but toward the latter half of the week, in the U.S. market, regarding the federal budget

the House, and then the Senate, did not pass a provisional budget, marking the first government shutdown in four years in the United States.

As of now, there seems to be no clear timeline for ending the shutdown, but

discussions for a breakout solution have been conducted and the impact on the currency market at the start of next week is a concern.



The U.S. government’s stopgap funding also resulted in a partial shutdown for 16 days even during the Obama administration,

and the U.S. employment statistics were not released. However, after the shutdown, the currency market

was less about a prolonged dollar selloff and more about expectations for an early resolution of the government shutdown

and subsequently the USD/JPY pair strengthened.



But if the immediate factors are absorbed and the shutdown continues after the morning of the 22nd,

the financial markets will be temporarily affected. Traders are likely to be busy early tomorrow morning as well, but the biggest issue is the significant impact on American citizens’ daily lives.





From the start of next week, the Bank of Japan decision and the ECB meeting are also in focus, with concerns in the U.S. potentially

easing earlier; it would be preferable to confirm whether Japan and Europe have any exit strategies.



Keep an eye on the 110 yen level for USD/JPY and on the historically large long euro buying positions.




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