Kingdoiru Bottom Yen stock price is rebound

Now, most certainly, the way to make the biggest profits is thought to be "selling yen / buying dollars," by many investors.

‎King Dollar Bottom Yen

- continuation of Japan's monetary easing

- aggressive rate hikes in the United States

- city lockdowns in China

- Russia/Ukraine war

Everyone was waiting for the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting to decide to keep monetary easing.

After confirming the diverging monetary policy direction with the United States moving toward higher rates, they all rushed to sell the yen at once.

The S&P 500 is virtually flat year-on-year. Investors are frustrated.

With corporate earnings solid, funds also flowed into stocks.

In particular, expectations for Meta Platforms (FB) were low, so the reaction was large when they turned.

U.S. real GDP contracted by 1.4% in Q1. In such times, one can conveniently interpret that the next FOMC will not see a rate hike exceeding 0.5%. At the same time, when you look at the GDP breakdown, the weakness was due to external demand and inventories, so stripping out net exports and inventories from GDP shows real domestic final demand at an annualized 2.6% growth from the previous quarter, improving from 1.7% growth in Oct-Dec last year.

Toyota's fiscal year 2021 (April 2021 - March 2022) production: overseas up 10.3% to 5,808,706 units, but domestic down 5.4% to 2,760,843 units. Domestic production was at the lowest level in 45 years since fiscal 1976 (about 2.58 million units). This is Japan's economy. (Even if Japan's economy is weak, Japanese companies now earn profits overseas.)

China's city lockdowns. Europe faces economic collapse due to the Russia/Ukraine war.

One thing is that the U.S. economy remains solid.

The problem is,

(1) concerns about global economic growth (inflation, COVID-19 pandemic & aftereffects, Russia/Ukraine war, supply chain concerns)

(2) whether U.S. monetary tightening will bring a recession, and if so, when?

However, regarding the United States, there are investors who think a recession will not occur.

There might be a scenario where a recovery demand from Ukraine appears at a time when the recession is about to start, supporting continued prosperity.

For Q1 real GDP in the United States, real domestic final demand excluding net exports and inventories grew at an annualized rate of 2.6%, up from 1.7% in Oct-Dec last year.

There may be some aspects where real figures appear suppressed by inflation. In fact, some view that real GDP is not as bad as it seems.