Set ambitious goals, but manage expectations
Sometimes a member asks, "Are you going to lower it after all?" But since I don't have a time machine, I can't answer as hoped. So I ask in return, "How do you think about it?"
Seen in text like this, I may seem a harsh teacher, but I want you to consider in which direction your own will is heading, and if you show me that, I think it will lead to meaningful discussion.
If you think it’s a buy, you buy; if you think it’s a sell, you sell... It’s the market, and there is no other way, so I remind myself of this repeatedly.
There are countless pieces of information in the world.
First, narrowing down the sources of information is my job, and that decision is up to me.
I collect, organize, process, and evaluate that information with my own hands.
But if you worry about "what should I do" in the face of endless information, you will never find an answer. You’ll simply be swayed by surrounding values and choose a temporary method for the moment.
When deciding everything by yourself, the foundation is the existence of a "method."
My first message is succinct: “Have a solid method, no matter what it is”For individual investors who cannot immerse themselves in trading 24/7, the rational path is to focus on a single method and seek good results within that method.
We hold an expected level for each trade.
Without expectation, we won’t take a position.
However, when it comes to money, expectations inflate in our minds. The so‑called "expected value" becomes too high.
When we calculate that “the price range could be up to 300 yen,” it’s calm to think “300 yen is optimistic,” yet we may suddenly push for “I’ll take 300 yen!” Or even think “maybe 500 yen.”
Generally, there is room to work toward bringing outcomes closer to the "expected value."
In sales, we think hard about the situation where a person might become a customer and act proactively. If there is someone in my personal life I want as a partner, I work to be liked. Of course.
But we cannot control stock prices.
Stock price movements are left to the market, and we only control our own reading and actions.
We strive to raise the quality of that "self-control." We should set high goals and act toward them, not be satisfied with merely a little improvement.
There are various goals, such as concrete monetary amounts or the quality of buying and selling, but if you can imagine, a higher goal is preferable. If you can only imagine a low goal, first you should expand your imagination itself.
However, in real trading, achieving one hundred victories is absolutely impossible.
Regarding individual wins and losses, you should not artificially raise the expected value in a lopsided way.
If the win rate is 50%, you win once in every two trades and lose once in every two trades.
Yet wins and losses tend to be skewed. There are times when your method and price movement do not align.
Therefore,it is normal that results like "lose five in a row after five trades" cannot be accepted plainly.To avoid becoming a blinded market refugee, you should envision your ultimate investor self as a goal while honestly accepting reality.
■Stock Investment [Tiger’s Hole] (Hayashi Investment Research Institute Channel)
On Friday, April 29, I uploaded the latest video.
Stock Investment [Tiger’s Hole]
Stock Investment [Tiger’s Hole] Establishing an Investment Style ~ The Three Principles of Trading
Do you have your own “investment style” (method)? What process did you follow to build it? These are easy-to-miss illusions in financial trading and dangerous traps... I’ve considered how to move forward straight, avoiding them.
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