The U.S. economy remains solid and on track

In March, retail sales excluding gasoline stations fell month-on-month, so there was some hesitation in judgment. In any case, prices (especially energy) are rising, so a gap arises between sales volume (real retail sales) and sales value (retail sales), which leads to this kind of doubt.

Nevertheless, industrial production (which is real) has remained solid.

In the end, estimating the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of growth for real GDP from January–March 2022 using retail sales and industrial production yields +6.01%. It may appear a bit high, but the economy is nonetheless solid. It is not a situation where the Fed hesitates to raise rates.

Note thatGDPNow — as of April 11 from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates it at 1.1%.