2018.1.8 FX－ON Submission Time 09:20 Dollar/Yen Price Movement Forecast and Scenario
USD/JPY Forecast: Reviewing the Previous USD/JPY Price Movement Projection
Previously, on a certain message board, someone criticized that “anyone can draw scenarios for both rising and falling cases.” To state the conclusion: that’s correct, and anyone can do it.Likely, in the past we distributed a “method to calculate target rates that even mobile users can understand” limited to active traders. If you use that technique, you can roughly draft the scenarios as shown in the article by about half. The rest can be completed by estimating support and resistance across each time frame.
It's such a simple thing, yet in reality more than 90% of traders do not implement it.
Why?
“It’s a hassle.”
“I don’t know how to do it.”
“I never had the idea of drawing a scenario.”
But being able to draw a scenario means you can read the chart.
If you can analyze things in advance, you won’t be left to luck; you can estimate risks and profits with a pre-prepared plan and repeatedly determine appropriate lot sizes, entries, and exits.
The things that are tedious and that no one does are profitable, so please give it a try once.
Previous USD/JPY Forecast (Click the image to go to the article.)
Previous USD/JPY Forecast: USD/JPY 15-minute Chart
Today’s USD/JPY Forecast: Build a price-movement scenario for USD/JPY
Looking at the daily chart, technically there is a high likelihood of breaking in the next rally. In other words, if it breaks above the resistance around 113.300, it could push through to break 115.000; however, if it fails to close above this on the daily close, it may retreat to around 111.500–700. Either way, you can still make a substantial gain after the break, so follow the market’s response.＜Posted 2018.1.8 09:10＞
● Scenario 1
If it breaks above 113.296, it will rise toward around 113.400–450, then consolidate or correct. If it breaks above the range, it could rise to around 113.550–650. If it breaks below the range, it may fall to around 113.050–150. After rising to around 113.550–650, it may correct to around 113.150–250. If the correction settles around 113.150–250 and the previous high is breached, it could surpass 114.000.
● Scenario 2
If it breaks below 112.994, it will fall to around 112.850–750, consolidating or correcting. If it breaks below the range, it could fall to around 112.700–112.600. If it breaks above the range, it could rise to around 113.100–050. After dropping to around 112.700–600, it may again consolidate or correct at around that level. If it breaks below the range again, it could fall to around 112.550–450. If it breaks above the range or corrects, it could rise to around 112.950–850. If it falls to around 112.550–450 and the downward movement strengthens, there is a possibility of falling to around 112.200–100.
EA equipped with this price-movement logic is available for free distributionIf it breaks above 113.296, it will rise toward around 113.400–450, then consolidate or correct. If it breaks above the range, it could rise to around 113.550–650. If it breaks below the range, it may fall to around 113.050–150. After rising to around 113.550–650, it may correct to around 113.150–250. If the correction settles around 113.150–250 and the previous high is breached, it could surpass 114.000.
● Scenario 2
If it breaks below 112.994, it will fall to around 112.850–750, consolidating or correcting. If it breaks below the range, it could fall to around 112.700–112.600. If it breaks above the range, it could rise to around 113.100–050. After dropping to around 112.700–600, it may again consolidate or correct at around that level. If it breaks below the range again, it could fall to around 112.550–450. If it breaks above the range or corrects, it could rise to around 112.950–850. If it falls to around 112.550–450 and the downward movement strengthens, there is a possibility of falling to around 112.200–100.
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