Lack of clues market

We are still digesting yesterday's FOMC meeting minutes and the market is lacking clues.
Considering that the announcement was close to market expectations, there is a high chance that profit-taking will continue today as well.

It is short-term, but yesterday I offered an analysis of USD/JPY.

In the Tokyo time window, selling pressure has been moving toward the 123.5 yen line.

As seen in recent days, USD/JPY is lacking liquidity more than usual, so fluctuations around the fixings are quite volatile.

When there is no clear sense of direction, it is important to take short-term positions in line with the flow.

This will likely be volatile again around the fixings today as well.

Since the 10th is Sunday, today effectively falls on a 'go-to' day (GOTO day).

If you start to see smooth USD buying after about 8 o'clock, it might be worth following it.

However, be cautious of selling after the fixings are passed.

ECB minutes released

Yesterday, the ECB minutes were published.

“Many officials stated that, given that inflation remains high and persistent, there is a need to take additional steps toward normalizing monetary policy immediately,” and the conditions for forward guidance on rate hikes were considered to be “already fulfilled or very close to being fulfilled.”

Quoted by Reuters

Inflation in the euro area has risen sharply since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
From February to March, it rose 2.5% month-on-month (the year-on-year rate is tempered by base effects).

Ironically, inflation has risen so sharply that it would take Japan's 2% target in just one month.

Even from the statement, they indicate that they can endure without entering a recession, signaling a stance similar to the Fed’s focus on curbing near-term inflation rather than bearing some pain.

The euro rose after the release but stalled in New York time, erasing the gains.

From a FX perspective, even with a hawkish stance visible due to Ukraine, a continuous rise is unlikely.

Rate hikes are planned for after the third quarter, so it remains a distant prospect.

Against the dollar and the pound, central bank stances are also becoming less divergent, making a rise difficult.

《Stock Market》

The Dow Jones stood around 34,700 by 4:00 AM Japan time.

As noted yesterday, short-covering has been dominant recently.
If you re-enter short positions, it might be better after the weekend; but if it reaches around 34,800–35,000, you would carry the position and still want to stay short.

The basic stance remains the same as yesterday’s article.

《Forex Market》

Watch for the horizontal break of the AUD and the 0.735 line after a reversal.
Same as yesterday’s article.

Summary

Small adjustments continue, and since it’s the weekend, there is little movement.
Holding the stance from yesterday’s article and not changing the analysis, today’s article will be brief.
I would view USD/JPY around 124.3 as resistance.

Today, there may not be much to trade besides around the fixings for USD/JPY and US stocks in New York time.

Towards the major upcoming CPI release at the start of next week, it would be nice if stocks lifted somewhat, but given substantial selling from earlier rebounds, a shallow pullback is likely.

※This article does not give buy/sell timing or recommendations.

Please make your own investment judgments