[“Forward-looking RCI” Reference Article] The story that what is considered “common sense” in online trading is not necessarily true
“Forecasting”RCI’s realRCI usage begins for people whose market experience spans5 years,10 years or more is not uncommon.
People with such long experience are very knowledgeable.
In particular, the so-called trading “common sense” you see online is something many people already know.
However, have you ever wondered whether such “common sense” might actually hinder improvements in your own performance?
If you have never thought about this before, what follows might be a little shocking.
However, for those truly aiming for high-level trading skills, it may become a new, valuable “new common sense.” If you’re interested, please read on.
Below, for those who are considering attending the Master Program—the pinnacle of RCI—in the future, Max has written an article, and you will also see comments from readers and Max’s responses to them.
… Here begins Max’s first article
Everyone
…. [About the depth of learning to succeed with RCI]RCI learning depth
Everyone should realize that you are preparing to enroll in the Master Program to achieve a high level where you can consistently win in FX.
And if you complete the Master Program, everyone will be elevated to a winning level, but be aware that the final level you reach will vary greatly depending on how you approach it.
This final level does not anticipate much downside, but there is ample upside potential.
months is a short period, yet some people can rise to very high skill levels.
Your win rate can approach 100%, and some may trade as well as traders who have been winning for years.
I don’t like fixed statements like “only these people” improve, but it is possible to list what is required to create such upside.
That1 is the depth of learning.
In the Master Program, you learn 12 signs, and you should learn them as deeply as possible.
You already have learned signs 1 and 10, but you should strive to deeply understand these signs, pushing to the point where you feel “there is nothing more I can learn.”
In particular, the area where depth makes a difference is the shape judgment of RCI.
How meticulously you go through this will greatly affect final performance (a difference from 80% to 100% win rate).
Therefore, for those aiming to enroll in the Master Program, please focus on RCI’s shape judgments and go deeply into each and every item.
… This is as far as the initial post goes
… The reply from the reader
… Yesterday, MAX sensei’s post about “depth”MAX was read.
I realized that I need to change my own thinking as well.
‘The depth of RCI shape judgment will ultimately reflect performance… difference in win rate from 80% to 100%.’RCI shape judgment depth difference shows up as a performance difference… from 80% to 100% win rate.
Until now, my thoughts have been as follows.
◆ Trading means winning and losing repeatedly, and it’s fine if the win rate is around 50% as long as there is overall profit, so trade with attention to the ratio of profit to loss.
◆ The market is a random walk, so capturing movements is inherently impossible.
But what I’m trying to learn now is a method that could even have a win rate of 100%. Not “winning and losing,” but deepening in a way that always wins. In fact, there are those who achieve 100% win rate, which I still find hard to believe, but that it’s possible.
The idea that “a depth of deepening can yield 100% win rate” was not something I considered properly, but I think it’s amazing. I will change my own thinking as described above and approach it with a mindset to deepen even a little.
… Reply ends here
… Below is Max’s reply
…さん
＞ “The depth difference in RCI shape judgment will manifest in final performance… from 80% to 100% win rate.”
Until now, I have thought as follows.
① Trading means repeating wins and losses, and if the win rate is around 50% and there is net profit, that’s fine; trade with attention to the profit-to-loss ratio.
② The market is a random walk, so capturing movements is not inherently possible.
I still hold the public’s “common sense.”
If you acquire the correct use of RCI, then both ① and ② will quickly become nonsense.
Strictly speaking, ① is a crude trading approach and not entirely wrong, but for the trades you master, it’s impossible, and ② would be completely negated.
In fact, Master Program graduates can predict future market directions with over 80% probability, which is true.
However, thanks to your writing, I now realize that the things I’ve written so far won’t dispel this kind of mistaken “common sense.”
For those with long FX experience, this kind of common sense will continue to need rigorous fact-boosting until it ceases to be common sense.
Truly, numbers like win rate 50%–60% are impossible for us.
But we don’t expect such numbers, andRCI10
In fact, among those who studied at a Master Program level, no one finished with win rate below 70%, and the Master final week average is above 85%.
You will reach that level.
So update your previous “common sense” completely and keep in mind that you are aiming for a level above the general public.
…Max replies ends here
What is written here is not bluffing; for those who have truly mastered RCI, it is “common sense.”
The belief that win rate of 50%–60% is OK is itself a common sense that prevents aiming higher.
With true technical reading, you can naturally achieve win rates of 80% and, rather than fixed risk-reward ratios like 2:1 or 3:1, you can exceed 5:1.
If you want to make such thinking your own standard, start true technical reading learning with “Forecasting” RCI.
Max
⇒ The concept of “Forecasting” RCI
⇒ The concept of “Forecasting” RCI (Part 2)
Forecasting Concept (Part 2)-- GogoJungle
⇒ Why doesn’t RCI yield results when used on multiple timeframes?
〇 Four major features of “Forecasting RCI”