Are Japanese stocks overpriced or undervalued?

Stock price = EPS × PER is the basic idea.

(1) EPS, in the case of Japanese stocks (TOPIX),

(A) use the projected EPS for the next year.
Basically, it is the projected EPS for the next year. However, the United States has quarterly earnings releases (and they come early), so those data can also be used to gauge performance trends.
In Japan, there is essentially only one annual earnings release (and it takes until late May for all results to be in), so actual figures are not appropriate.

(B) Whose forecast is it?
Nikkei’s forecast is not “the forecast for the next year.” It is a compilation of company earnings forecasts that the companies themselves announce. Moreover, company announcements are quite late in the market.

Securities companies and asset management companies use data that aggregators such as Bloomberg, IBES, and FactSet compile from analysts’ forecasts. The problem is that ordinary individual investors cannot access them.
Toyo Keizai and Nikkei do forecast individual stock performance, but I wonder if they publish a compiled version of those forecasts?

(C) So, what to do?
Asset management companies refer to the vendor aggregates and make their own forecasts. That becomes the asset management company’s forecast. It would be meaningless for a management company if it used the market’s forecast.
Since I cannot obtain vendor data, I base my forecasts on Nikkei, exchange rates, and economic trends.

(2) PER basically reflects financial conditions. It tends to rise during easing and fall during tightening.
However, in Japan monetary policy hardly moves the economy, so PER is rigid.

Additionally, in addition to the above, when using macroeconomics as a proxy for EPS, one uses nominal GDP and corporate statistics such as operating revenues.

The above has been verified in the following.