Hogosha is correct to sell
The idea that "holding or waiting for a market bottom is the correct move" is not a universal truth for everyone, but it stems from a professional way of thinking.
People who are called traders have long viewed stock price fluctuations from the perspective of "trends." They consider the characteristics of both rising and falling markets and honestly reflect on their own behavior and how a player should conduct themselves.
As a result, even in a price trough where there is no momentum and the market shows a sideways movement, referred to in market terminology as a consolidation, they do not define it as hoping for a rise and entering; instead, they define it as “going short is the correct action.”
If the stock price falls and the price range that appears to be sufficiently cheap is moving sideways, the common interpretation is that if it moves next, it will only move upward. I do not have any objection to that part.
However, if it is truly going to rise, it is hard to explain a state where it is left in the cheap price range — such a assessment is also valid.
At the very least, there is a tendency to overestimate one's own prediction of“I found a good stock. It will rise.” If one articulates the pro’s stubbornness to avoid making wrong moves driven by one’s own convenience, the guideline becomes“Holding or waiting for consolidation is selling”as the principle.
【Analysis and Evaluation】
・Physically possible that if it moves, it will go "up".
・However, it might stay longer than expected.
・If so, once momentum starts, riding it gives enough opportunity and time isn’t wasted.
・Even in a low-price consolidation, buying a stock that doesn’t move carries downside risk.
【Conclusion】
・As a player, if you take a position, it should be a “short sale.”
It’s not that I’m being contrarian; it’s a practical logic to control myself and the resulting gains or losses.
I often say that “buying low and selling high” leads to mistakes.
If you treat up and down as a trend, and do not cling to your buying price or previous lows as mere “past” events, and correctly look toward the “future,” you won’t be fixated on buying cheaply, and you will arrive at the answer of“buying a position in an uptrend.”to do so.
The average price of buying is advantageous when it is low, but the longer it takes, the harder it becomes to capture the range.
Even if you skillfully enter in a low-price consolidation, it might take six months to end with a profit of 50 yen.
Getting on board once it starts moving allows you to capture the same 50 yen range in a shorter time and increases the chances of further gains.
In stock trading, it is not about“buying low and selling high”“buying high and selling at even higher prices.”but, in practice, about imagining
“That’s not enough. Buy high and add to the position at even higher prices.”
■ Stock Investment [Tiger’s Cave] (Hari Investment Research Institute Channel)
On Wednesday, March 2, I uploaded the latest video.
Foundational knowledge and basic techniques to profit
【Eyesores】 When buying, you hit the ceiling; when selling, you hit the bottom — does such a thing exist?
Forecasting the market is extremely difficult — so sometimes you get caught up buying at high prices or selling at low prices. But do such people always mess up? Considering the psychology of practitioners and the market’s reactions, let's think about the proper actions (the correct answers) to profit!
■ YouTube Channel Market Scramble
I uploaded past videos to Market Scramble.
You can view them at the following URL.
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