The accuracy of Makoto Matsushita's stock price forecast
Good morning, this is Matsushita.
Yesterday's Dow Jones closed higher,
continuing to reach record highs.
The Shanghai Composite Index continues to fall.
USD/JPY remains in a tight range around parity.
NY Gold continues to rise.
I serve as an investment advisor for the
Safe Rich Program,
and every December we distribute the next year's annual outlook report
to our members.
This service has been around for almost ten years now,
and like other services, we have consistently
continued it.
This year, the season has come again,
and I am currently drafting next year's outlook.
In this report,
from the currency and stock markets for the coming year,
we highlight notable stocks as well, but
the stock picks highlighted in last year's report
had their stock price appreciation rates
investigated.
As a result, five stocks were covered,
two showed substantial gains, two showed modest gains,
one showed a modest decline.
The largest rate of increase among them was
a rise of 90.7%, almost doubling.
Do you think this forecast accuracy is high or low?
This year, the Nikkei Stock Average rose for the first time in history for 16 consecutive sessions,
and reached its highest level in 26 years,
so, regardless of who predicted it, the numbers would be about this level.
I always say that
the important thing is not prediction.
In this annual report, what matters is not only the forecast accuracy but also
strategy, money management, consistency and continuity.
In that sense, for Matsushita Makoto's investing,
as the proposer of the Targeting Investment Theory,
the strategy is self-evident.
Money management is also essential.
And the annual outlook report has been
produced with consistency for almost ten years now,
year after year.
In other words, winning stock investment is
where the “forecast accuracy” you see
exists elsewhere.
Being happy or disappointed about whether a forecast was right or wrong
is like children playing with toys.
That does not achieve the real purpose.
Evaluating Matsushita Makoto's forecast accuracy alone won't generate profits.
From this report as well,
I hope you learn elements other than that.
With that in mind,
I am pouring my heart into this year's report again.
ps
That said, there is nothing better than having forecasts come true.
Since long ago,
people say,
“Matsushita-san, you predict so well.”
If not, I can't stand on stage in front of people. (laughs)