Sky Fox Bitcoin & Global Markets Weekly Report 2017/12/18

Weekly Report: Afterglow and Erosion #FX #Bitcoin #CFD #Stocks #Gold #Crude Oil 2017-12-18

(Excerpt from Sky Fox Bitcoin Newsletter)

2. Day Trading Rhythm as of 10:43 — How to read and use is shown below

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　

Symbols / Day-trade Perspective / Today’s Assessment / Attention Level & Safety Rating

TLT US Treasury price ↑ Bullish Uptrend / B

Dow ↑ Bullish Uptrend / A

Nikkei ↑ Bullish Uptrend Correction / B

DAX ↑ Bullish Uptrend Correction / B

Dollar Index →↑ Bullish Uptrend / C

EURUSD → Neutral BOX Pattern / C

EURGBP → Neutral BOX Pattern / C

GBPUSD ↑→ Bullish Uptrend / B

AUDUSD →↑ Bullish Rebound Trend, Bottom Formation, Buy Threshold / B

NZDUSD →↑ Bullish Rebound Trend, Bottom Formation, Buy Threshold / B

USDCCHF ↑ Neutral BOX Pattern Upward View / C

USDJPY ↑ Bullish Uptrend Buy Target / A

EURJPY → Bullish BOX Pattern Buy Target / B

GBPJPY → Bullish BOX Pattern Buy Target / B

AUDJPY →↑ Bullish Uptrend Bottom Formation Buy Target / B

NZDJPY →↑ Bullish Uptrend Bottom Formation Buy Target / B

GOLD ↓→ Bearish Downtrend Correction Bottom Formation / C

WTI ↑→ Bullish Uptrend Correction / B

BTCUSD ↑ Bullish Uptrend / A

BTCJPY ↑ Bullish Uptrend / A

BCHBTC → Neutral BOX Pattern / C

BCHUSD ↑→ Neutral Uptrend / A

XRPUSD ↑→ Bullish Uptrend / B

ETHUSD ↑ Bullish Uptrend / A

ETCUSD ↑ Bullish Uptrend / A

LTCUSD ↑ Bullish Uptrend / A

NEMUSD ↑ Bullish Uptrend / A

MONAUSD ↑→ Neutral BOX Pattern / C

XRPBTC ↑ Bullish Uptrend / B

ETHBTC ↑→ Neutral Downtrend / C

ETCBTC ↑→ Neutral BOX Pattern / C

LTCBTC ↑ Bullish Uptrend / A

NEMBTC ↑ Bullish Uptrend / B

MONABTC ↓ Bearish Downtrend / B

3. Fundamentals

Monday, December 18

19:00 EUR Consumer Price Index (Core) YoY (11) 0.9%

19:00 EUR CPI YoY (11) 1.5%

Tuesday, December 19

09:30 AUD RBA Minutes

Wednesday, December 20

Thursday, December 21

11:00 BoJ Interest Rate Announcement −0.1%

15:30 BoJ Press Conference

22:30 U.S. GDP (Annualized) 3.3%

22:30 U.S. PCE (QoQ) (Q3) 1.4%

22:30 USD PCE Core Price Index (MoM) (11) 0.2%

4. Summary

Last week’s market

In the first half of the week, markets remained focused on the FOMC and Christmas mood kept activity subdued; despite the Fed rate hike, the Dollar Index rose only moderately and lacked a clear direction. In the latter part of the week, TLT rose toward the weekend, Bitcoin hit consecutive highs, and NY time showed a tendency to make records. With CME entry from the 10th, Bitcoin did not change much, and the financial markets ended in a somewhat eerie rhythm.

This week's theme

• Weekly report: Afterglow and erosion. As Christmas approaches, the illuminated financial markets reach their end. Also, next week's tax reform proposal is expected to pass smoothly. From the encroachment of cryptocurrencies, traditional markets quiet down, and as new colors drip into the market like droplets, ripples will form. Therefore, to keep markets quiet, cryptocurrencies may provoke volatility,

This week's first half and second half are envisioned as having different scenery.

Basic stance: a wait-and-see approach and mental rehearsal should be fine. Bitcoin price movements remain unpredictable, and flash-like price moves should be watched for.

• The golden ratio of fundamentals & algorithms: 1 to 9; we view the market with the algorithm as dominant.

This week is a crypto-focused week, and judgments will prioritize algorithms.

Another important point is that a high TLT and a strong dollar create a mismatch. Higher TLT lifts global stock markets; a Dow rise would be good, but a large Dow correction is not surprising. The atmosphere is eerie. With gold rebounding, upside may be capped.

Even though Christmas is near, the overall feeling is unsettling.

• Position size: View: 0–1: wait-and-see or small probing; 2–3 probes; 4–5 normal to larger size

Current market: position size 0–1; wait-and-see

This week’s notable stocks

BTC pairs; crypto overall

Dollar index; TLT position

5. Financial Markets: Quick Notes in Order of Attention

Bitcoin/Dollar 18269 Uptrend WoW +24.45%

Bitcoin/Yen 2058660 Uptrend WoW +17.83%

Other cryptocurrencies: Uptrend WoW changes of +50% to -20% or more

→ Crypto market volatility has exceeded 20%, and recent volatility has accelerated. How much will CME entry change things? Expect moves 20–40% larger than usual.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin’s uptrend remains based on technical analysis; trend-following indicators stay firm, more so than oscillator-based indicators.

Based on intermarket correlation, stocks and dollar rise, TLT remains high, which is eerie. Market preferences are shifting toward cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin’s correlation: dollar? stocks? commodities? → stocks. Moves are in tandem with stocks.

Note: Bitcoin’s intermarket correlations determine its direction relative to the dollar, stock prices, and commodities.

TLT 128.35 Uptrend WoW +1.31%

→ Bond market: Technical analysis and regression analysis show a BOX pattern; if upside above 128–129 is tested and surpassed, it changes the overall market landscape. Oscillator-based indicators support upside as well. Caution needed. However, intermarket analysis suggests a weak balance with a stronger dollar, making direction ominous. A Dow upside move alone is not necessarily a signal to buy. With gold’s revival, upside may be constrained.

Dollar Index at 93.86, Uptrend WoW +1.31%

Dollar/Yen, Euro/Yen, Sterling/Yen, AUD/Yen, NZD/Yen: bullish bias

Dollar crosses: Euro pairs, Pound pairs: bullish bias; watch for pullbacks

Commodity currencies: AUDUSD, NZDUSD: watch for pullbacks

→ FX market: The dollar index is in a BOX pattern, probing higher; weekly chart changes possible, and this week the Ichimoku cloud shows misalignment and potential volatility. Oscillator indicators have shifted; direction is neutral, awaiting a BOX breakout.

Therefore, dollar-crosses should be watched for pullbacks; USD/JPY and cross-yen pairs remain ultra-short-term buying opportunities.

Intermarket analysis shows a high TLT and a strong dollar, with an unfavorable balance and potential for turmoil; Bitcoin’s emergence as a preferred asset complicates easy directional decisions; we’ll watch for the pullback rhythm.

Dow 24,651 Uptrend WoW +1.33%

Nikkei 22,553 Uptrend WoW -1.13%

DAX 13,103 Downtrend WoW -0.38%

→ Stock market: Dow continues higher on tax reform optimism; Nikkei and DAX show adjustments.

From technical and regression analyses, an uptrend is the view. Oscillator-based indicators enter a corrective rhythm, suggesting waiting for buying opportunities.

Intermarket analysis suggests TLT highs and dollar strength; whether sector rotation begins this week is the key. If sectors beyond tech begin favoring global equities, the Dow could accelerate further. Will the dollar’s direction become clear? That’s the point.

Gold 1253 Downtrend; Correction; Upward bias WoW +0.48%

Oil 57.35 Uptrend; Correction; WoW -0.02%

→ Commodities market: The risk-off mood settles; gold forms a bottom by regression analysis’s lower bound. Technically it may fall, but oscillators indicate a rebound; market calm supports a rebound scenario.

Oil: Technical and regression analyses show bullish bias; oscillators indicate a correction rhythm.

Intermarket analysis shows dollar strength, stock strength, and a high TLT; market anxiety is latent; as Bitcoin emerges as a preferred asset, it’s hard to decide direction; we will watch for a corrective rhythm.

PS: https://www.moneypost.jp/230499

Will Bitcoin reach internet-scale adoption?

Submitting my thoughts; no particular personal change, just deadlines.

This week there will be many meetings and late-night sessions; gathering information for next year’s outlook will be the focus.

For now, sentiment toward cryptocurrencies remains high.

What about the path forward? Still under consideration. I will trust in people I meet and my own luck. Things often resolve like fate, and I’ll make it clear by the year’s start.

☆ How to Read and Use ☆

Asset / Directional Scenario / BOX Forecast / Short-term, Swing Trade Reference / Medium-to-Long Term, Position Trade Reference / Attention Level

Example: Dow → Up, Bullish 21187~20490 Short–Mid Term: BOX upward; Long-term: Up / A

Direction scenario indicates the imagined price path

BOX forecast: Mathematical daily-base analysis; 2–3 weeks outlook; key upside and downside points

Note: Range expressions are unified into BOX

Average daily range: Use typical price movement as a reference for day-trading strategies

Example: 100 is the average range; if it has moved 50 from the open, the movement may continue; if it has moved 100, it may not move further today. Also, stop ratios and a 150-stop line; profit-taking might occur if it has moved 100 today. Use as a reference.

Reference for short-term swing trading: price path illustration

Short-term: daily-base analysis; 2–3 weeks outlook

Mid-to-long term: position-trade reference; price path illustration

Medium term: weekly-base analysis; months to less than half a year

Long-term: monthly-base analysis; over a year

Attention level: market focus and sentiment; A or B indicates good trading environment for new trades or continuing positions; E or D means pause trading or unwind positions

Attention levels A–E: A very good, B good, C watchful/neutral, D somewhat risky, E dangerous

Watchlist

Asset / Confirmed Price / WoW / Asset View and Scenario

Bitcoin/USD 4154 WoW -4.34% BOX Pattern

Described as

→ Bitcoin market: brief notes on each market and asset

Day Trading Rhythm ☆ How to Read and Use ☆

1. Today’s Perspective and View

Today we consider trading in the trend’s direction using point-and-line analysis.

Depending on market conditions, this may fade quickly. Ultra-short-term view.

We forecast a market-leading trend

Notation Examples

Up ↑

Down ↓

Watch →

BOX Pattern →

Buy Target: buying and waiting for upside

Sell Target: selling and waiting for downside

Probe: before full-scale trading, trade with a small position

Bullish, Bearish, Neutral and the trend’s consolidation; evaluating BOX-market conditions

☆☆ Changes in rhythm may require ultra-short-term scenario changes or expirations. Caution is required.

3. Attention Level: fusion analysis of the day’s stock and safety from 1–2

Attention Level A–E: A very good, B good, C watch/neutral, D somewhat dangerous, E dangerous

A Rating: favorable market conditions; new or continued positions

B Rating: pullback, dip buying; new entries; continued holdings

C Rating: neutral, watchful, observe for features; consider profit-taking

D Rating: reconsider scenario; take profits; hold new trades

E Rating: not a trading target; watchlist item

☆ Market Time Characteristics: Trend Analysis and Entry Analysis

Identifying market trend cycles is essential

NY trend is considered the consensus direction for the global market

Basic flow: NY trend → Tokyo wait-and-see → EU pullback or rebound → return to NY cycle

☆ Primarily, use NY time and NY trend as the core for trend analysis and enter in the same direction

Tokyo time: wait-and-see; reflect on NY; form trading image

EU time: volatility; confirm Tokyo-time trend; many cases of pullback or rebound/drop

NY time: confirm NY trend and ride the flow

☆ Weekday Characteristics: entry analysis based on day-of-week traits

Monday: wait-and-see; check held positions; domestic meetings

Tuesday: scenario adjustment; global strategy meetings this week

Wednesday: scenario adjustment; reconsider; trading with slight opportunity

Thursday and Friday: trading opportunities

Saturday and Sunday: Bitcoin liquidity increases

～『Sky Fox: Bitcoin & Global Market』～
Investment Salon Overview

【Analysis Target】
Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, overseas equities, bonds, forex, commodity markets, global markets

【Regular Delivery Content】

（1）Monthly Report: Position-trade ideas
First week of the month: Long-term view

（2）Weekly Report: This week’s trade stance; swing-trade ideas
Every Monday: Short- to mid-term view

（3）Daily Report: Today’s day-trade, trading stance
Monday–Friday + occasional signals

Note: The weekly report includes Monday’s daily report

【Temporary Delivery Content】
（4） Sky Fox School: Trader Training Program; ideas for improving trading skills
（5） Market News Quick Explanations; Market Live; comments; original change days,
Currency strength relations; intermarket analysis; regression analysis, etc.
Sky Fox: Bitcoin & Global Market ESTA Honorary Member, IFTA Technical Analyst