Let's adventure with the market's sages! The undefeated Jungle Cruise [Episode 7] Mr. Tokyo System Trader
【7th installment】
・Master the market with meticulous logic
“Beatrice series” and “Rijing series,” among many high-quality EAs developed by Mr. Tokyo System Trader (hereafter: Mr. TST). He also boasts a top-class number of releases on fx-on, making him one of the developers who continually attracts attention.
Moreover, the reputation of TST's EAs is evident at a glance by peeking into the community on the sales page. Not only the ratings, but also that he responds politely to users' questions is evidence of high reliability.
・FX started because it was trendy
TST started FX ten years ago. However, the trigger was surprisingly simple.
“Back then FX was just starting to become popular, I saw TV commercials and thought I'd try it. Actually, when I start something new, the most decisive factor for me is whether it's gaining momentum. I'm somewhat a trend-follower, in life as well.”
・Going it alone with self-study but got hammered
Of course, the market isn't easy to beat from the start. TST, like other traders, faced difficulties.
“I started with self-study first, but it didn't go well after all. If I were to give advice to someone starting to trade, I wouldn't recommend self-study first. It will waste time and money for sure,” said TST, who was hit hard by the market at first. For that reason, there was a period of about one to two years when he kept his distance from FX.
・A comeback through system trading
Having tasted such a setback, TST's restart was sparked by system trading.
“There were times when I didn't even want to look at charts, but I learned about systematic trading and decided to try it. More than anything, I didn't want to quit like this.”
Actually, TST holds a qualification as a Basic Information Technology Engineer. He specializes in programming. However, it took a lot of trial and error to build usable systems.
“When I tried to use as reference, I first tried existing programs and products, but there wasn't much decent. It seemed particularly bad back then. For example, some simple logic was dressed up with unnecessary programs to appear more complex.”
・Hypotheses and verification repeated
Also, at that time there was little information about system trading, and he struggled with the gap between backtest results and actual trading.
“In developing system trading, eliminating curve-fitting (over-optimizing data) is extremely important, but at the time there was no reliable information and I struggled. So, I kept formulating hypotheses and testing them over and over. Then, one day I found a book in Britain that described such things. Moreover, the countermeasures for curve-fitting were very similar to what I had done so far, and I could be convinced that my method wasn't wrong. From there I was able to conduct proper testing, and development progressed.”
・The completeness increases with version upgrades
Because the system was built through such hard work, TST initially had no intention of selling it.
“I originally built the program for my own limited use, so I had no intention of selling it at all. Also, settings and conditions vary by broker, so there were concerns especially in the early versions. But when I received an offer, I thought I might try it experimentally in a sense. Of course I was confident. In fact, with every version upgrade, I think the level of completeness has become higher.”
・Forward testing should be three to six months
When asked for advice for people planning to start using EAs, TST said, “Not only backtests, but you should also look at forward tests for at least 3 months to 6 months.”
By the way, it is said that TST lived in a share house to learn market intuition by studying crowd psychology and human cognitive biases. Is there another developer as stoic as he is in developing EAs…?
Tokyo System Trader's Works (Excerpts)
INTERVIEWER
Tatsuo Nagamoto
After working as an editor for a certain automotive magazine, in November 2017 he joined GogoJan Co., Ltd. (Media Sales Department). He resonates with the corporate philosophy 'The Wisdom of Investors for Everyone' and is striving to realize it. He has the ambition to achieve financial freedom by interviewing outstanding investors and system developers.
