Accept reality
In the February 7 blog, I mentioned, “Focusing on an ideal pattern increases the win rate, but there are still times when you lose.”
When a calm, sensible person hears this, they respond, “That’s right. I’ll bear it in mind.” But when you actually lose, it is still emotionally hard to accept. It feels somewhat painful.
To lose despite narrowing down to an ideal pattern that “should win”…….
To fail even after creating a position by saying, “If we don’t act here, what will we do?!”…….
Money has actually decreased, so even a calm, sensible person finds it hard to be convinced.
Isn’t there a little more we can do…? Without this feeling, the necessary creativity won’t be stimulated. But it can barely cross the line into being an excessive, bad response.
What is needed is to analyze reality a bit more calmly.
“In practice, 40% will miss the forecast,” is the reality; this expression is merely the observer’s viewpoint.
For a trader, the “true reality” includes secondary effects such as what you feel when 40% miss and what kinds of behavioral tendencies emerge. It is more complex than you might think.
Even if you were convinced that “with this approach the cumulative profit over a certain period would be positive,” a string of losses could be extremely painful. It makes you anxious and consider changing your criteria.
Creativity nudges just over the edge of that line.
In such times,“There are situations you can’t win,” “and there are times when that continues,”this realization is very important. If you keep changing your criteria based on every single result, you’ll be lost forever. That’s market refugeehood.
Stock price cycles are longer than you might expect.
A few months of “undulations” accumulate into multi-year moves, so if you narrow down the stocks and methods appropriately, it’s not rare to have “a year you can’t win.”
This is a reality you also need to accept.
One of the proper responses derived from this is,“Trade by combining multiple stocks with different wave patterns.”
Some people want to pick stocks that surge dramatically, but if you think clearly, this is a method that can only be executed with a small amount of capital.
As a result, you either take on excessive risk (aiming for a big payoff with a large amount of capital) or, even if you hit a big winner, the amount is small (appropriate trade size).
The top priority is to manage your valuable assets, trade systematically to sustain it, and not dream of massive wins but to stabilize results.
■Stock Investment [Tiger’s Den] (Hayashi Investment Research Institute Channel)
On Wednesday, February 9, I uploaded the latest video.
Basic knowledge for making money and fundamental techniques
【Painful to Hear】Short-term trading turns into long-term holding
This stock is a 3-day bet! I bought with that plan, but since it isn’t rising, I hold on……
■YouTube Channel Market Scramble
Tonight, the latest video from Market Scramble will also be released.
Please watch at the URL below. Enjoy!
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