January US Employment Statistics Completely Unexpected
Please look at the results below.
January US employment rises by 460,000; unemployment rate 4.0%, labor shortage continues: Nikkei
Completely unexpected.
From ISM data and others, it was understood that employment would be fairly solid, but this time it came out weaker due to special circumstances. I cannot understand it at all.
Also, this time revisions are made retroactively. A fairly large revision.
That’s why forecasts for employment data are difficult. Or rather, I don’t even know what to forecast.
A comparison table before and after the revision is coming next.
Employment Situation Summary - 2022 M01
In light of the results this time, for now, interest rates rise and the dollar strengthens.
The stock market has not priced this in. I did not expect that.
Even if economic growth continues (and corporate profits expand) and there is no change in the economy apart from rising prices, that may be positive, but it suggests that monetary tightening will proceed steadily, which would be negative for the stock market looking six months ahead.
Given this result, it is difficult to take immediate stock investment actions. If I were to take a deliberate action, it would be to sell.
Below, I will add graphs for non-seasonally adjusted figures, wage growth rates, and so on.