Method to Recognize Ideals and Reality
There is no precise way to predict stock prices going up or down.
Because price movements follow a variety of patterns.
Therefore, many investors think, "I'll judge flexibly," and try to use multiple criteria, but somehow they end up confused. Even if they organize information well, it becomes harder to take action.
However, among the various price-movement patterns, there should be some that you feel, "I don’t want to miss this."
Value only that pattern and make it your cherished model. Inevitably, you ignore everything else quietly. You pass it up confidently.
If you discard patterns that only look "possible," you create a sensible "rest period." Then, the remaining energy should be directed toward the ideal price-movement pattern: "this is the one to take!"
If you can think this way, professional, well-timed trading becomes possible.
Suppress the feeling of "I can do a little more" and set your standards at a point that’s just a bit unsatisfactory.
In any field, the goal isn’t to do everything. A professional is someone who only handles what they are absolutely confident they can do.
Don’t be swayed by terms like "opportunity cost." Focus on your strong patterns and preferred patterns, and discard the rest with a comfortable ease.
Now, by narrowing down to your ideal pattern, you can expect a higher winning rate.
Still, you will lose at times, and more importantly, the difference between high and low win rates isn’t a major issue.
Everything comes down to how you respond to price movements.
When your prediction is correct, i.e., when the market unfolds as expected, you consider securing profits while aiming to maximize profits as much as possible.
When the prediction goes wrong, in short, it’s an unavoidable error in outlook. Whether you cry out "Damn!" or lament that "the market is wrong," you may vent your feelings, but there is no time to retreat or sell off the purchased “bad products.”
Thus, dividing results into "hit" or "miss" is extremely simple, but trading is a process of continuously making decisions over time, with infinite options at every moment, which is a difficult task.
Judging "hit" or "miss" itself is difficult.
That’s why, to avoid freezing up and being unable to act, you must have a supremely simple criterion.
A calm mindset that feels comfortable with guidelines like, "It seems profitable, but it’s not a pattern I like, so I won’t touch it," is what you should cultivate.
That is,"Setting an ideal model"is what it means.
Your own "template" is, "If this condition and this condition come together, it will rise, so buy."
If it’s an ideal model, that’s fine; if you deviate slightly from the ideal, you don’t tolerate it with crosses or triangles saved for later (in the end, you end up taking action and regretting it, or you can’t control it)… By thinking this way, you can just barely execute a complete sequence of positions.
This "ideal model" is also very helpful as you gain experience and improve your strategy. A clear model becomes the criterion for trial and error with an eye toward change and improvement.
People who don’t improve are always outcome-focused, always fluctuating with every result. By setting an "ideal model," you can avoid becoming such a market refugee.
■Stock Investment [Tiger's Den] (Hayashi Investment Research Institute Channel)
On Friday, February 4, I uploaded the latest video.
Stock Investment [Tiger's Den]
Stock Investment [Tiger's Den] What Individual Investors Should Consider for a Portfolio
In stock investing and trading, do you consciously think about the word "portfolio"? I considered the original meaning of the word "portfolio" and deeply reflected on practical individual investor portfolios.
■YouTube Channel Market Scramble
Tonight, the latest video from Market Scramble will also be released.
Please view it at the URL below. Enjoy!
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