The hidden strength and limits of “discretion”
By not being confined to the vertical direction of charts and by being aware of the horizontal “timing” of days, you can foster an attitude that imagines an “uptrend” or a “downtrend.” With this idea alone, market observation should become considerably clearer.
That said, stock price fluctuations remain inherently unpredictable, and easy profits are not guaranteed.
Waves trading is described as “taking both up and down moves,” but in reality it is natural to struggle—“taking and giving in an uptrend,” and “taking and giving in a downtrend.”
However, if what you should do is clear, you will have a solid method in place, so although the worries never fully disappear, it is possible to bring the indecision closer to zero.
Now, the words feel quite crisp. But in reality, it is extremely difficult to maintain the correct posture.
The reason is that each trade’s profit and loss is such a vivid outcome that it shakes emotions, making the steady practice of wave trading surprisingly thorny. Many people give up.
And you end up back on the path of scrounging for information and leaning toward guessing in a one-shot bet.
As a solution, not the only method,Chugen Sen Line Positioning Methodoffers a usable approach.
With the Chugen Sen, a simple line chart that connects only daily closing prices is used, and trend judgments are made through daily up-and-down pattern analysis.
From the perspective of timing observations, it is a forecasting method that aims to detect trend changes based on short-term ups and downs.
However, it is not simply about trying to predict the trend.
Predictions will be right or wrong; the real market will involve taking and being taken. Based on this correct understanding, the goal is to control profits and losses skillfully, and a three-part position operation is defined.
Because it is based on mechanical criteria, even people who are conscious of the trend may find some false signals hard to accept.
Conversely, there are many cases where you must react quickly to moves that cannot be captured by discretionary judgment.
Which is better is very difficult to discuss; each has its strengths and weaknesses. However, to develop the ability to control your own trades, the Chugen Sen’s rule of “act with clear criteria and certainty” is a tremendously valuable asset.
“I should have cut it sooner…”
Lamenting this while clinging to a sore point,
“Should I sell or not…?”
and hesitating and start worrying about others’ forecasts…
These kinds of swings misguide the trader’s path.
Contrary to the hope that experience increases ability, it is human weakness to repeatedly fall into hesitation, and you want to avoid developing that bad habit, but it’s all too easy to fall into it.
The ideal trader is one who acts with a decisive will to establish a position, and regardless of whether the outcome is as expected or not, decisively plans the next move and acts.
Mechanical judgments, including not just the Chugen Sen, can never match human judgment.
Yet, it has the strength of not being swayed by mood or by someone’s whispers, and it consistently presents the same judgment. It does not wobble.
Therefore, trading with the Chugen Sen in actual practice (starting with small position sizes for practice trades) provides a valuable experience to “test yourself in a fixed form” and to experience steady, planned trading without deviation.
For this reason,Hayashi Investment Institute places emphasis on explaining the Chugen Sen.
■ Stock Investment [Tiger’s Den] (Hayashi Investment Institute Channel)
On Wednesday, January 26, I uploaded the latest video.
Foundational knowledge for making profits and basic techniques
【Why does it happen like that?】 When you buy, it goes down; when you sell, it goes up
When you buy a stock, you want it to rise as it is, and when you close a position, you want it to fall even if it shouldn’t.
■ YouTube Channel Market Scramble
Tonight, the latest video from Market Scramble will also be released.
Please watch at the URL below. Enjoy!
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