1/26 Tokyo dollar-yen exchange rate trading points
＜January 25 Dollar/Yen results＞
Tokyo range: 113.66=114.05, close 113.86
New York range: 113.79=114.06, close 113.85
On 1/25 Tokyo, there is no concern about breaking below the “bottom zone” of 113.65=95 this time.
Tokyo’s point is whether at least the “important zone” 114.00=15 can be closed at, which will strongly influence whether the market can move higher toward the 115 yen range in tomorrow’s 1/26 NY FOMC results.
Yesterday, in Europe it rose to as high as @114.15, and I smiled to myself as predicted, but “those who grow arrogant will not last.” A reflection.
In NY, conversely, it fell to below the bottom-point 113.95-00, trading sideways in the resistance band (2) 113.80=90.
＜1/26 Tokyo Dollar/Yen development＞ (as of 8:10)
On 1/26 Tokyo again started from the “branching zone” created at the bottom point 113.80=114.00, so the conclusion was delayed by one day.
If the breakout of the “branching zone” proceeds, as written in Tokyo yesterday, the FOMC results will ultimately be a dollar-buying driver and aim for the 115 range.
On the other hand, if it breaks down, the market will shift to a “dollar selling-led” regime.
In fact, this theme of “breaking below the bottom and a regime shift is only a matter of time” has been the focus of this week’s weekly report.
Which is correct will determine the strong market trend from next week, and this continues until the FOMC policy rate decision early tomorrow morning.
There are three possible scenarios.
(1) The most anticipated by market sense is the breakout of the branch zone 113.80=114.00 first, pushing toward the upper zone 114.20=40.
(2) Before the FOMC, no movement occurs and the branch zone 113.80=114.00 remains in small ranges.
(3) The most hoped-for by investors is the breakout of the branch zone 113.80=114.00 to the downside.
A confirmed shift to a “dollar selling-led regime,” with a possible drop to as low as 112.65.
＜1/26 Tokyo Dollar/Yen Analysis Diagram＞
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