Yen/USD, U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks — positions of speculative traders

(1) Yen/USD

Speculators' net long yen positions have fallen sharply over two weeks. It suggests betting on yen appreciation is risky. However, yen selling has also decreased, and they are not aggressively betting on yen weakness. Speculators’ moves are hard to read.

As yen-buying positions have shrunk to this extent (historically at a low level), from here yen buying could become more likely. One more point: speculators’ moves are hard to read.

(2) U.S. Treasuries

U.S. Treasury futures come in six varieties: 2-year, 5-year, intermediate (6.5 to 10 years remaining), 10-year (10 years remaining), long-term, and ultra-long-term.

The most heavily traded is the intermediate term (6.5 to 10 years remaining).

ReferenceMost Active Futures - Barchart.com

Bond futures holdings have also fallen sharply since last year’s end and are at the lowest levels in recent years. On the other hand, bond selling has not particularly increased.

Holding bonds is considered risky, but there isn’t a strong desire to bet on rising rates.

Looking at this, in both yen-dollar and bonds, the stance appears to be “flight from risk.”

Right now, that has cooled. It is hard to read how it will emerge in the future.

(2) U.S. stocks

There are several types of stock futures, but let’s look at the most traded, the S&P 500 mini.

Shorts are at a low level. Long positions are at a relatively high level. Based on this, speculators are somewhat bullish on U.S. stocks.

Conversely, going forward, shorts (stock selling) are likely to be built up, and longs are easy to reduce.

However, for several years, speculators have been using ETFs rather than futures to take positions. When selling, it is naked short selling. There is no accompanying statistic.

The short positions in ETFs (including those held by non-speculators) can be found on Bloomberg and others, but the author does not have them at hand.

As shown above, whether in currencies, bonds, or stocks, it is difficult to read the trends from speculators’ actions.