1/20 Tokyo USD/JPY exchange rate trading points
＜1/19 USD/JPY results＞
Tokyo range: 114.21=78, New York range: 114.21=53
On 1/19 Tokyo, contrary to expectations, it fell back into the “divergence zone on the weekly report,” returning to an important stage in the development.
Forecast for 1/19 was
“Tokyo is falling toward the upper edge of 114.20=50 in the ‘divergence zone’ due to declines abroad, and whether it can rise again by topping this level at 114.40=75, thus creating an upward momentum.”
(2) A corrective market ends with a consolidation in the “divergence zone” 114.40=75
(3) The bottom is secured as the downside test of the “lower limit zone” 114.20=30 is realized, and the rebound will resume from tomorrow
＜1/20 Tokyo USD/JPY development＞(as of 8:20)
On 1/19 Tokyo fell to the “lower limit zone” 114.20=30, aligning with (2) and (3).
On 1/19 New York moved into the scenario of (3).
Therefore, on 1/20 Tokyo today, the behavior will hinge on whether it breaks above or breaks below the “divergence zone” 114.20=50, which includes the “lower limit zone” 114.20=30 from yesterday, as a basis.
(1) Break above the “divergence zone” 114.20=50 to rise to the “upper limit zone” 114.55=75
(2) End with a consolidation in the “divergence zone” 114.20=50
(3) Break below the “divergence zone” 114.20=50 to drop to the “lower limit zone” 113.90=114.00
Expectation is,Pattern (1) to maintain this week’s flow, but in terms of investment, I strongly expect Pattern (3).
If that is the case, the realization of the current market’s “bottom testing” would target 113.10 today.
＜1/20 Tokyo USD/JPY analytical illustration＞
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