Law of Kilgul
Any investor tries to forecast correctly. However, there are many anxieties in their mind, which make it difficult to observe price movements with a pure mindset.
Even though they have wisdom and experience and should be capable, they cannot exert that power, and the more they think, the more their forecasts become distorted.
The more confident you are that “this will be the correct move,” the more distorted your forecast becomes.
Even when trying to read the opposite side, it is the same: “Because I want to buy, it will peak”… since the final answer is “sell,” the stock price tends to rise further.
A law of some sort, you could call it.
In reality, forecasts aren’t distorted that badly, but real-world adaptability, action, and instantaneous responses fall far short of expectation, and that gap leads to a shaking, bad outcome.
If you buy a stock and it falls, creating an unrealized loss, and you stubbornly stay put, you’ll eventually reach a breaking point and cut your losses, only for the price to rise… the act of “cutting” and “coming” merging into the “Kill-Cull’s Law.”
Those unpleasant feelings linger, becoming a hindrance and causing you to make mistakes again next time.
This may be the normal flow in a sense, but with a little adjustment in thinking, the vector can change.
“What I can see is only a tiny part; considering the number of participants, I can only see 0.0001% of the market, or even less.”
No matter how much you think, you can’t predict tomorrow’s stock price; you might as well just give up and stop thinking.
I said “stop thinking,” but more precisely it means “don’t overthink this and that.” Focus on 0.0001% of the market and tighten your resolve by concentrating on “this is what I should do.”
As a result, you can gradually proceed according to your own strategy. But it doesn’t mean your forecast will be correct.
“When it hits, you can earn a reasonable amount.”
“When it misses, you can limit your losses reasonably.”
That is the idea.
The combination of “forecast” and “response method” is the concrete methodology for riding the waves of price movement, and with the addition of money-management standards, it finally forms a method.
Trading is different from sports in that its entry, exit, position sizing, and asset selection are all free.
Therefore, holding a bad position and hesitating to decide can widen losses, while exiting too early can miss profits.
In a market with rough moves, maintaining calm, balance, and a measured approach is crucial, and the idea of “not overthinking this and that” is very important.
If there are 100 traders, there are 100 ways of thinking and, naturally, 100 methodologies. It’s unrealistic to expect to master every price-move pattern and win every time.
Even if you can’t win every time, it’s human nature to mix several criteria well… but that, too, is only an illusion.
To trade in a balanced, planned way, focus on one thing you choose; this means “discard the remaining 99.”
With a confident attitude, don’t worry about the things you discarded. Concentrate on refining the one thing you chose, and avoid comparing yourself to others.
The grass is greener on the other side.
■Stock Investment [Tiger’s Den] (Lin Investment Research Institute Channel)
On Friday, January 14, I uploaded the latest video.
Stock Investment [Tiger’s Den]
Stock Investment [Tiger’s Den] Considering Capital (Money) for Buying and Selling
Stock investment and trading are long-term endeavors. However, there is no decisive “cut” like in sports. Therefore, every action you take now will influence future “results.”
■YouTube Channel Market Scramble
Tonight, the latest video for Market Scramble will also be released.
Please watch at the following URL. Enjoy!
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