When the sequence "Order" (closing price > 5-day moving average > 20-day moving average) breaks, it immediately becomes a high. From Hiroshi Kōya’s "From the Technical Room"
Delivery date: 2016/10/08 09:37
To identify the high, a more effective
order (close > 5-day MA > 20-day MA)
Yesterday's newsletter stated that Mini GC shows on data
a signal that the market is entering its peak
phase, and I would like to add one more piece of data
to complement that.
Simply having the GC condition (5-day MA > 20-day MA) with a closing
price reduces the number of lingering days by half, and as an indicator
of a returning high, the sequence (close > 5-day MA > 20-day MA) is more effective
to identify that.
.
What you should pay particular attention to is the “order”
(close > 5-day MA > 20-day MA) relationship lasts at most
7 days, with an average of a little over a week. When the sequence
is broken, as shown below, the stock price has already reached a high.
This week is a week when prices tend to try for a high from a
cycle perspective. If the daily close falls below the 5-day MA (Oct 7, 16,782 yen),
it will be a short-term high. From the weekend’s after-hours close (16,790)
it becomes worrisome.
Final day of the “order”
High
4/26 4/22 2 business days earlier
5/31 5/31 same day
7/21 7/21 same day
8/15 8/12 1 business day earlier
9/07 9/06 1 business day earlier
GC period Days Close > 5-day > 20-day High
Days
4/18~5/06 11 days 4/19~4/26 6 days 4/22
5/26~6/06 8 5/26~5/31 4 5/31
7/13~8/04 16 7/13~7/21 6 7/21
8/10~8/23 9 8/10~8/15 3 8/12
8/30~9/14 12 8/30~9/07 7 9/06
10/6~ 10/6~
