November 21 Investment Market Analyst/Trader Remarks

■ Traders based in London and Europe

They were briefly driven down to 1.1722 dollars, but short-term buyers stepped back in.

■ Robert W. Beards, Chief Investment Strategist (Milwaukee) of Brainerd

“From a very short-term perspective, there are moves related to year-end tax-related measures,

and given the possibility that the tax reform bill’s passage may be delayed, the rally could have a longer pause,”

he continued, “even if the market turns soft, it will be limited in both time and level.”

■ Ernie Cesario, Chief Investment Officer of The Brinmar Trust

Regarding the news of Ms. Yellen’s resignation, from a monetary policy standpoint, “the impact is unlikely.”

“If anything, Mr. Powell’s policy will be a continuation of Chair Yellen’s policy.

So, I don’t think there will be a major impact on monetary policy.”

■ Western Union Business Solutions Senior Market Analyst

Mr. Joe Mannimbo

News of the coalition talks breaking down has become a “major risk factor” for the euro.

“As the euro weakens,

the dollar is able to overlook the United States’ political policy uncertainty,”

he said.

■ Chieft FX Strategist for Citi Group Securities, Osamu Takashima

In a report dated the 20th, he stated, “Moves in the yen that depart from the macro environment are often caused by capital transactions such as M&A.

There is no long-lasting yen strength that deviates from the macro environment.”

He noted that one reason for the yen’s strength could be

the comment that acquisitions of Japanese firms and related businesses by overseas corporations may be involved.

■ Domestic financial institutions

“Uncertainty remains, but at this point it is hard to see that the euro area would be negatively affected by the absence of Merkel as a successor or by domestic German political issues.”

※ In a France- and Germany-related article, during a phone call on the night of the 19th, Macron and Merkel discussed

■ Domestic securities companies

With the United States designating North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism again,

North Korea may again take actions such as missile launches or nuclear tests,

“Mentally, it will be difficult to push the dollar higher in risk-off mood.”

■ Daiwa Institute of Research

Recent German public opinion polls show that the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD), which rose to the third party in the last Bundestag election, is gaining momentum,

and if a snap election were held, there is concern that its vote share would rise further.

■ Kazuya Haruki, Head of the Financial Products Department at CIBC Securities

“The dollar/yen is entering a phase of seeking buying opportunities toward year-end, and,”

although the downside risk that appeared yesterday has subsided for now, in the near term there are “few factors to push the dollar,”

“This week, with Thanksgiving in the U.S. approaching and liquidity thin, volatile moves are expected,

and following the current trend could be painful in this market. It is important not to overextend,”

he said.

Regarding Germany’s political situation,

although Chancellor Merkel has shown a stance of not ruling out another election,

in reality, a minority government is assumed.

“Until the situation becomes clearer,

the euro is likely to remain in a range supported by solid fundamentals,”

We also publish other useful information on our blog.

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