Even if you can’t predict it, a long-term strategy can win
Make a prediction each time without betting, and repeatedly place the same bet based on a long-term strategy
Even if you experience a temporary string of losses, don’t try to predict and hit the mark; by consistently repeating the same bet, you can win
【New Trader × Rich Trader Steve Burns】
Beginner Trader
“I still can’t quite explain how traders who don’t predict price movements make money effectively.
Is predicting where stock prices will go not the only profitable method?”
Wealthy Trader
“First of all, I must say that it’s impossible.
The future hasn’t happened yet, so how can you predict it?”
【Buffett and Soros: Victory in Investing】
‘The Big Sin of Investment’
Next, you must predict how the market will move.
‘Truth’
Extremely successful investors are no different from you or me in their ability to predict the market’s next move.
If no one can predict it, then only long-term strategy will win, right?
Interview with charismatic trader Richard Dennis
Q
What proportion of trading is due to luck?
A
In the long run, zero.
I think there is no luck at all.
I don’t believe anyone in this industry made money purely because they were lucky.
Q
However, in individual trades, wouldn't luck clearly make a difference?
A
That’s where it gets confusing.
Examine individual trades and it’s almost entirely luck.
The issue is how you take a strategy.
If you adopt a method that works with a 53% success rate every time, it may work 100% in the long run.
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