Despite the segwit2x termination, the upside remains heavy
11Month's themesegwit2xwas unexpectedly canceled,BTCmarket regained its calm.
9BTC, which had been rising in a clean uptrend sinceBTCfrom September, is expected to slow its pace of ascent in the future.
■Segwit2xwas canceled
The chart has Bollinger Bands2σ applied.
10/31ACMEannounced it will list BTC futures within the year. Also,11/8BTCsplit due tosegwit2xhard fork was announced to be canceled. Following these, the uptrend from September continued and reached the largest gain of the year. The longest uptrend so far this year lasted about2months; if you take 9/15 as the starting point of the current uptrend, it is approaching that level.
However, perhaps due to the overheated feeling that would have broken a steep trendline,segwit2xconfusion and other risks had disappeared, yet the upside was limited. With the digestion of the material and later supply-demand factors, the market was relatively quiet, with a hint of wind in autumn.
■ The rise in diversified investors is weakening BTC’s momentum
This prolonged upward trend was driven by expectations that BTC would give rise to new altcoins through a fork. As price reached higher levels, physical prices began to exceed leveraged trading prices, causing a broad decline in altcoins.
Because new altcoins could be added to portfolios at zero cost, diversified investors temporarily tilted their positions from altcoins toBTC, allowing the long uptrend to persist for an extended period. Therefore, BTC was bought regardless of price level. However, aftersegwit2xwas canceled, expectations for altcoin issuance faded, and diversified investors pulled out.
This caused leveraged trading prices to again surpass spot prices,11/9and currently altcoins are surging.
■ The breached trendline is the focus
If the price reliably rebounds when it falls to the chart trendline (upper), it suggests strong buying interest, serving as a buy signal; if it falls without rebound, then while Bollinger Bands converge, it indicates a corrective phase. In that case, one should time a short entry and, upon confirmation of a reversal, switch to a full long on a dip.
■ By the end of the year1,000ten thousand yen target
segwit2xconcerns have faded, and the ongoing expectation of futures listing suggests that BTC/JPY will aim for100000,000 yen. However, many investors are not able to buy at current levels, and a “special demand” from diversified investors is also absent, so11the pace of ascent may slow in November and at some point a substantial drop could occur. Then, as buying resumes, the trend may move toward the full100000,000 yen target.
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【Author】
Kawada Saiou(Kawada Saiou
Traders Securities Market Division, Dealing Section
Born in Geneva, Switzerland. Graduated from Keio University.
Drawing on experiences traveling around the world, our fanmentalist analysis is persuasive as it is grounded in real experience.
Using behavioral economics learned in college, analyzes market participants' psychological biases theoretically and applies them to trading.
Hobby is shogi; amateur high-dan level, good at midgame strategies which also help in reading the next move of the market.
“The masses are always wrong” is my creed.
【Disclaimer】
The content of Bitcoin market information and other content provided on this site reflects the author's personal opinions and does not guarantee the accuracy or safety of the information by the author or Traders Securities Co., Ltd. Also, such information is intended only as a reference and does not endorse any specific investment actions or management methods regarding cryptocurrencies. Please make the final investment decisions yourself. Any gains or losses from investments belong to the investors. Neither the author, Traders Securities Co., Ltd., nor the company shall be responsible for any damages incurred based on this information.
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