U.S. Employment Statistics (October 2021) Forecast

Since the spread of the novel coronavirus infection, my forecasts have stopped hitting the mark entirely. It seems the structure and environment of the employment market have changed from before.

That said, I will continue to forecast,for nowthey may not be that important an indicator. This is because Chair Powell has stated that basic monetary policy will not be changed until employment levels return to pre-pandemic levels.

And that time would be when the number of employed persons increases by 500,000 each month, which would be next July. It is precisely the period when the Fed is considering a rate hike.

Therefore, I do not think this employment report will cause a large market move or change the outlook, but I will still forecast the month-on-month rise in nonfarm payrolls as a precaution.

September had a somewhat irregular development. Government-sector employment fell (the red bars in the next graph). As a result, the outcome was considerably lower than market expectations.

October may add on top of that rebound effect.

So, I will estimate the month-on-month increase in nonfarm payrolls from unemployment insurance claims and other data.