"Everything becomes FX" Weekly Trading Vol.010 that no one can tell anyone about
This "Investment Navigator Plus" is a report delivered every Sunday by "Everything becomes FX," who considers money management.
It's not limited to FX markets; I want to share the weekly positions I actually hold with a limited audience.
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▼ Table of Contents
―1. Current Situation
―2. Global Finance
―3. Weekly Trades You Can't Tell Anyone About
―4. Next Week's Positions
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【PR】Turn FX losses into gains by using money management
A trading technique that emphasizes money management, which is often neglected in FX.
It enables trades that aren’t swayed by win rates or methods.
▼1. Current Situation
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The lead article "Everything becomes FX" moves domestically and abroad about half the month. I’d like to inform you where I am now, what I’m watching, and whom I’ve been meeting and working with domestically.
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This week I’m in Manila.
With the rainy season ending around November, I chose the Philippines. In the summer, the rainy season plus typhoons destroyed internet infrastructure, so I’d like to avoid that…
Also, the scary part is the germs after rain. Recently it rained heavily a few days ago, and I fell ill afterward. Whether it’s due to germs or something else isn’t clear, but generally after rain germs spread easily, so there might be a correlation ( amateur guess ).
By the way, the Philippines is known to be much cheaper than Japan. After all, the average annual income is about 480,000 yen (as per the National Statistics Office and International Labour Organization).
And this is only the average; the median is likely even lower (extremely high figures can pull the average up).
If you feel that living on a Japanese salary is tough (as the public sentiment suggests many feel), living in Southeast Asia countries like the Philippines (excluding Singapore) is recommended.
Even taking on a few Japanese or American projects via crowdsourcing can yield substantial price differences (arbitrage).
If you’re involved in FX (investor-minded), it should not be hard to transcend ordinary common sense. If you act now, your experience in one year will be that of a one-year veteran.
With LCCs, you can travel domestically cheaper than a domestic express train, so there’s no reason not to act.
▼2. Global Finance
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Many FX participants spend a lot of time researching fundamentals and technical analysis.
Yet, ironically, about 90% of FX participants incur losses, and many end up leaving the market.
In this column, I want to think about global finance while keeping some distance from those trends.
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This week, the UK raised rates for the first time in about 10 years (0.25%→0.50%).
However, BOE Governor Carney stated, “The next rate hike will depend on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations,” and also said, “The Monetary Policy Committee will need to validate new forecasts and adjust policy accordingly,” causing the pound to fall about 150 pips.
Personally interesting is the arrest warrant issued for Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan prime minister—charged with treason for leading a declaration of independence. It feels like something out of a textbook.
When you look at historical textbooks, you sometimes wonder, “Huh, were people punished for that back then?” A famous example is the Shinsengumi from the late shogunate era, whose position shifted and ended up treated like terrorists (though some theories say they were essentially terrorists).
And there was news that Bitcoin surpassed $7,000.
It has risen quite a bit from around $5,000 a while ago. Even with a small amount, holders may have gained a sizable profit.
After the rise settles somewhat, I expect Bitcoin trading to truly begin in earnest. Those who just made temporary profits won’t be able to rely on that anymore (the same goes for those who bought the actual stocks riding the rise), so the market's skill will be tested.
Just as currency markets had turnover when the dollar-yen pair fell, stagnated, and rose, those who can’t adapt will be淘汰されます (eliminated).
To avoid becoming a “person of the moment,” I believe it’s necessary to grasp the essence of the market.
▼3. Weekly Trades You Can't Tell Anyone About
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A weekly trade with a full use of capital management in a trend-following and counter-trend portfolio that you can’t tell anyone about.
Since 2012, when I started, there have been no annual losses and a total profit of over +30,000 pips.
What is the secret to profitability with a win rate of 48%? Here I present this week's trade results.
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・This week's result: +180 pips
・Cumulative result: +30,876 pips
(decimal places omitted)
【Weekly Trade Results】
・Win rate: 48.6%
・Average win: +839.6 pips
・Average loss: -580.1 pips
・Maximum winning streak: +13,491 pips
・Maximum loss: -2,932 pips
・PF: 1.37
・PR: 1.45
“Weekly Trades You Can't Tell Anyone About” uses positions with advantages from the 1-hour, daily, and weekly charts and trend. However, its essence lies more in money management than in trading itself.
The win rate of this method is 48%. It feels like about 40% by “felt probability,” so it cannot be recommended for those who require a win rate of over 80%. It targets people who can think long-term profitability.
