Too excited?
Hello, this is Nikkei OP Day Trader, the administrator.
Thank you very much for visiting this blog.
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Now, the theme this time isMarket Impressions.
Although yesterday's U.S. market closed slightly higher, today’s Japanese stock market is surging significantly.
The Nikkei 225 in the first session is at 22,324.64, up more than 310 points.
On the first trading day of the month, there is a strong phenomenon often referred to as theunexplained January anomalythat exploded again this month.
Perhaps some government-related fund is buying at the beginning of each month.
Also, is this the celebratory market for the Abe administration’s nomination by Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) as well?
Of course, there are expectations for the earnings of companies like Sony as well, right?
Now, if we look at the investment environment calmly
Since the forecast EPS for October 31 is 1,444.33, the PER calculated from yesterday's 22,011.61 is 15.24 times.
If the forecast EPS does not change,the pre-market level of 22,324 yen corresponds to a PER of 15.46x.
From here, how far will the forecast EPS rise? Calculating from the current price of 22,324, to return to a PER of 15 would require a forecast EPS of 1,488.30.
Furthermore, to return to a PER of 14.5x, the forecast EPS would need to rise to 1,539.63.
Therefore,“If the forecast EPS does not rise from the current 1,444.33 to around 1,500, the ceiling may be near.”This is my assessment.
I had thought it would be a calm week, but the impact of the first-day anomaly seems larger than expected.
Also, since selling pressure is quite severe, there may be a further rise due to short-covering buys.
Note) The above is my personal view and is intended solely to improve financial literacy. It is not prepared for investment solicitation purposes. Actual investment decisions should be made at your own risk.
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