"Everything Becomes FX" Week-Weekly Trade No One Can Tell Anyone About Vol.009
This "Investment Navigator+" is a report delivered every Sunday by "Everything Becomes FX" that contemplates money management.
It isn’t limited to FX markets; I would like to share the weekly positions I actually hold with a limited audience.
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▼Table of Contents
―1. Current Situation
―2. Global Finance
―3. Weekly Trades I Won’t Tell Anyone About
―4. Next Week’s Positions
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【PR】Turn FX Losses into Gains by Using Money Management
A trading technique that emphasizes "money management," which is often neglected in FX.
It enables trades that aren’t swayed by win rates or methods.
▼1. Current Situation
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The lead piece "Everything Becomes FX" moves between domestic and international locations about half of every month. I’d like to share where I am now, what I’m seeing, and who I’ve met for work in the domestic scene.
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This week I’m in Tochigi.
As written in last week’s Investment Navigator+, since returning to Tokyo I’ve been traveling counterclockwise through the Kanto region. Therefore, “this week” might be more accurately described as “today.”
A mid-sized regional city within an hour by Shinkansen from Tokyo, with good food and abundant nature a short distance away—looks like I might get hooked all at once.
Being able to move relatively freely like this is a benefit of financial trading.
If it’s tough to be out all year, trying just weekends could be interesting. However, like markets, if everyone behaves the same, you’ll lose (travel costs and accommodation can be high), so I also recommend trying only weekdays to go out.
Personally, when there aren’t specific plans I spend about half of each month overseas. Viewing not only 5-minute and 15-minute charts but also daily and weekly charts, placing yourself in a different environment often yields new discoveries.
▼2. Global Finance
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Many FX participants spend time researching fundamentals and technical analysis.
Yet, ironically, about 90% of FX participants incur losses, and many exit the market as a result.
In this column, I’d like to think about global finance while keeping some distance from those aspects.
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This week the independence of the Catalonia region (Spain) is making headlines.
Spain’s unemployment rate is 17.1% (Japan is 2.8%), and in 2013 it was as high as 26.1% (over one in four), showing how high unemployment can be in the country.
Nevertheless, Barcelona and Ibiza remain vibrant, perhaps because the warm Mediterranean climate makes people feel that “the food is good and we’ll manage somehow.” (This is true.)
Even in Manila’s metropolitan area (Philippines), where adults are far poorer than in Japan, people basking in the sun during the day still wear smiles that seem lively and real.
Now, with Spain’s turmoil, the euro has dropped significantly. The euro-dollar is down about 200 pips, and the euro-yen about 2 yen.
On the 27th, it was reported that all ministers in the Catalan government would be dismissed and the parliament dissolved, with elections to be held on December 21 (Bloomberg).
As someone who trades foreign exchange, many might recall the June 2016 Brexit issue as something similar.
Currency pairs involving the euro appear to be volatile, so a tighter, more reactive method might be better than broad, wide-ranging approaches. That said, there’s potential for things to go well, so personally I recommend “continue as is.”
Also, cryptos like Bitcoin are in the news a lot lately.
Bitcoin Cash emerged in August, and on the 24th, Bitcoin Gold was born. There are rumors of more currencies emerging around November (this one seems shadowy but impressive).
Additionally, DMM announced entry into cryptocurrency trading (through its subsidiary Next Currency).
This means that in the future, the largest profits in crypto could come from affiliates…!?
Readers who already have FX experience should have good synergy with Bitcoin and other currencies. This might be an opportunity to shift focus from the market itself to “the side selling the pickaxe.” (dark).
▼3. Weekly Trades I Won’t Tell Anyone About
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A "weekly trade" that uses full money management in both trend-following and counter-trend portfolios, which I won’t tell anyone about.
Since starting in 2012, there have been no annual losses and total gains exceed +30,000 pips.
What is the secret to achieving profits with a 48% win rate? Here I present this week's trade results.
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・This week’s result: +27 pips
・Cumulative result: +30,662 pips
(Decimals omitted)
【Weekly Trade Results】
・Win rate: 48.6%
・Average win: +839.6 pips
・Average loss: -580.1 pips
・Maximum win: +13,491 pips
・Maximum loss: -2,932 pips
・PF: 1.37
・PR: 1.45
"Weekly Trades I Won’t Tell Anyone About" takes long positions on the hourly, daily, and weekly charts based on trend and other advantages. However, its essence lies more in money management than in trading itself.
This method’s win rate is 48%. Because it feels like about 40% in the "felt probability," this cannot be recommended for those who require a win rate above 80%. It targets those who can consider long-term profits.
