Event

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Serialization “Trading Philosophy”…20

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We have detected gravitational waves!

People say it is a “mystery of the universe,” but I cannot understand it.

For me, the explanation itself is the mystery.

In science, everyone is either wrong or all eventually arrives at the correct answer, but in the world of markets, it is always “half correct, half incorrect.”

Nevertheless, I see debates where it seems reasonable to question whether there is an assumption that everyone will reach the correct answer. For example, regarding events that could influence price movements—“events”—their impact on the market is discussed, such as whether prices will go up or down.

Recently there was the House of Representatives election.

The opposition party suddenly disappearing is as mysterious as the universe, but setting that aside, the explanation is political stability and stock gains due to the ruling coalition’s landslide victory.

However, that logic is difficult to tie to investors’ actions because it is a hindsight explanation by the media and the sell-side (the people who make markets move).

There is an event, predict its impact and outcomes—

The idea that there is only one correct way is evidence that you are being manipulated by the sell-side.

“Predict the impact of an event and take a position”

“Avoid trading because price moves are volatile during events”

“Just watch the price moves without thinking”

“Which one is correct?” cannot be answered.

If your thinking and your trading are aligned and consistent, any of them can be “correct.”

Markets are a different world from science, where each philosophy yields its own unique answer.