“Everything Becomes FX” The Weekly Trade You Cannot Tell Anyone About Vol.007
This “Investment Navi+” is a report delivered every Sunday by those who consider money management and “everything becomes FX.”
It covers money matters not limited to FX markets, and I would like to share my actual weekly positions with a limited audience.
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▼ Contents
―1. Current Situation
―2. Global Finance
―3. Weekly Trades You Can't Tell Anyone About
―4. Next Week's Positions
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【PR】Turn FX losses into gains with money management
A trading approach that emphasizes money management, which is often neglected in FX.
It enables trading that is not swayed by win rates or methods.
▼1. Current Situation
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The lead article “Everything Becomes FX” moves between domestic and international venues about half the month. I’d like to share where I am now, what I am seeing, and whom I have met and worked with domestically.
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This week I’ve returned to Bangkok again.
There are direct flights from Japan to Ho Chi Minh City, but using overseas low-cost carriers is far cheaper, so when staying in Southeast Asia, it’s also enjoyable to route through Kuala Lumpur or Bangkok.
How long will the Japanese believe the stereotype that “LCCs are dangerous”? As more people use airplanes like trains and buses, the ability to ride them easily will naturally be valued.
As cheap smartphones spread, carriers feeling threatened have countered with budget brands like OCN Mobile ONE (NTT), UQ mobile (au), and Y!mobile (SoftBank).
Likewise, domestic airlines operate LCCs such as Peach, Vanilla Air (ANA), and Jetstar Japan (JAL) (though there are investment arrangements by multiple companies).
However, LCCs that compete purely on price are all struggling. In the future, differentiation beyond price will be necessary.
Personally, Scoot, a Singapore-based LCC, is convenient to use (Tigerair recently merged!).
So Bangkok continues to be rainy (the rainy season is from June to October). Sometimes a downpour feels like someone has literally overturned a bucket, then it stops and repeats.
During the day I work in my room, and at night I dine with local acquaintances. Don’t worry—this isn’t the kind of online business hype or extravagant lifestyle you might have seen before.
▼2. Global Finance
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Many FX traders spend their time researching fundamentals and technical analysis.
Ironically, about 90% of FX participants incur losses, and many end up退出 (leaving the market).
In this column, I will consider global finance while keeping distance from these factors.
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This week, the Dow reached a record high. Japanese stock prices also rose with the global stock rally, moving into the 21,000-yen range for the first time since 1996.
Rising stock prices pushed the dollar/yen toward weaker yen, but it pulled back from the 113 handle. The week closed in the upper-110s (tension remains with North Korea).
Personally, I believe it’s important not to cling to a single method. For example, trade in longer time frames like swing trades, then also engage in nimble day trading or scalping.
No single method or time frame is outright best or worst. The key to building a good portfolio is to apply different strategies for different currency pairs and timeframes.
Bitcoin surpassed $5,000 on October 13. Will it aim for $10,000 with this momentum (perhaps it rises as more users join)?
Anyway, the fact that China’s regulation is now being absorbed as noise suggests that cryptocurrency has finally permeated the general public.
Now, “Weekly Trades You Can't Tell Anyone About” are turning out to be quite losing. Readers who practice rigorous money management will soon show their true strength.
It’s strong to be able to win or lose without attachment to the outcome of the trade. In other words, you must trade with that level of position sizing; otherwise, you’ll be mentally worn down.
Let’s continue trading in the long term without being driven by immediate desires.
▼3. Weekly Trades You Can't Tell Anyone About
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A daily trend-following and counter-trend portfolio using full money management in “Weekly Trades You Can't Tell Anyone About.”
Since starting in 2012, there have been no losses for the year and total gains exceeding 30,000 pips.
What is the secret to profitability with a 48% win rate? Here are this week’s trade results.
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・This week's result: -125 pips
・Cumulative result: +29,673 pips
【Weekly Trade Results】
・Win rate: 48.6%
・Average win: +839.6 pips
・Average loss: -580.1 pips
・Largest win: +13,491 pips
・Largest loss: -2,932 pips
・PF: 1.37
・PR: 1.45
“Weekly Trades You Can't Tell Anyone About” takes positions with advantage from the 1-hour, daily, and weekly trends. However, its essence lies more in money management than in trading itself.
The win rate for this method is 48%. It may feel like about 40% by “felt probability,” so it may not be recommended for those who insist on a win rate of 80% or higher. It targets those who can think in long-term profits.
